Trump-Xi meeting may test India’s position vis-à-vis China

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For more than two decades, successive US administrations have viewed India as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. But the stance of the current US administration seems to be in favor of Beijing while punishing India. This week, I explain how the US-China summit could impact New Delhi’s equation with Washington.

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India, whose importance in US foreign policy has been shaped by differences between Washington and Beijing, will be keeping a close eye on the meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

When the summit between the world’s top two economies begins later in the day, India will be hoping that Trump’s soft stance towards China will lead to no trade-offs that will diminish New Delhi’s role in the Indo-Pacific, experts said.

If Trump prioritizes a bilateral grand bargain with Beijing, India would have “reasonable concerns that the United States will treat China as a central negotiating partner in Asia rather than as a central strategic challenge,” Raunak D. Desai, visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, told CNBC.

Therefore, “India will need to make it harder to ignore its strategic value,” Desai said, adding that this would mean that the US-India relationship would have to deliver more concrete results in areas such as defence, maritime security, critical minerals, energy and manufacturing.

Trump and Xi last met in November in Busan, South Korea, where the US President called Xi.A very tough negotiator,” and said the two sides have “always had very good relations.” Meanwhile, Xi urged Beijing and Washington to be “partners and friends.” During the meeting, Trump also Cited China and America As G2.

“He (Trump) favors strong-arming leaders,” Nirupama Rao, former Indian ambassador to the US, China and Sri Lanka, told CNBC’s “Inside India” on Monday. He pointed to Trump’s cordial approach toward Xi in recent days.

“It was Trump who challenged America’s China policy in his first term and even promoted the Quad,” said Harsh Pant, vice president of studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation. quad is one diplomatic partnership between Australia, India, Japan and the United States with the aim of achieving a “peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific”.

Trade tensions between China and the US, which escalated during Trump’s first term, also made India one of the many beneficiaries of the China+1 policy, as US companies began to diversify their supply chains away from Beijing.

But during Trump’s second term, US foreign policy has changed, with relations between Washington and New Delhi deteriorating over trade and tariffs. The US President even warned Apple not to make smartphones in India as it is pursuing its “America First” agenda.

“The narrative of India as a counterbalance to China has weakened under the Trump administration,” said Chittig Bajpai, senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House. He said Trump’s foreign policy during his second term has been more transactional and less value-driven.

India-US relations suffered a major setback last year when Washington accused New Delhi of profiteering from cheap Russian oil and imposed a 25% penalty tariff on China’s Russian oil purchases.

After the Xi-Trump meeting in Busan last year, Washington also cut tariffs on Chinese goods to about 47%, which is less than the 50% it imposed on imported Indian goods earlier this year.

“The (Trump) second administration started out very aggressive when it came to China, but quickly realized that it did not have suitable alternatives to the Chinese components that American companies and consumers needed,” said Aryan D’Rozario, associate fellow chair of India and Emerging Asia economics at CSIS. This softened the stance against Beijing.

While US-India relations soured due to Trump pursuing his transactional foreign policy, Beijing and New Delhi have been locked in border disputes for decades and relations remain fraught with tension. Against that backdrop, India will be watching the outcome of the US-China summit more closely than most Asian countries.

“From New Delhi’s perspective, it will be watching the Trump-Xi meeting with some degree of trepidation amid concerns about the revival of the so-called ‘G2’ concept, which marginalises middle-powers like India,” Bajpai said.

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