What Trump and Xi decide not to say on trade will worry global markets

Donald Trump left Beijing declaring success after two days of high-level talks with Xi Jinping, but investors should focus their attention on the absence of concrete details from the summit between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies, according to CEO Nigel Green.
Deavere Group.

“The headlines sound convincing, but the substance beneath them remains remarkably thin.

“The market heard promises of stronger ties, bigger purchases and stable ties. What they didn’t hear was perhaps much more important.”

Trump claimed that China would buy 200 Boeing aircraft along with a significant increase in purchases of American agricultural goods and energy exports. Yet no formal agreement has been publicly released by Beijing, no timetable has been revealed, and no financial framework has been disclosed.

“Global investors are being asked for optimistic valuations without documentation,” says Deavere CEO.

“Aviation orders, agricultural commitments and trade pledges only make sense if they have enforceable details attached to them. Right now, that’s too little.”

US-China trade exceeded $575 billion last year despite years of tariffs, export controls and strategic hostility.

China remains the center of global manufacturing supply chains, while the US remains one of China’s most important export destinations. Financial markets are desperate for signs that tensions between Washington and Beijing are easing in a meaningful way.

Nigel Green argues that the summit provided optics rather than solutions.

“Unfortunately, there were no serious public successes on tariffs, semiconductors, export controls, rare earth minerals or industrial subsidies,” he says.

“Those are the main disputes shaping economic relations. None of them disappeared as the language softened between the two leaders.”

Rare earths remain one of the most strategically sensitive issues.

China controls about 70% of global rare earth production and about 90% of processing capacity. Those materials are essential for semiconductors, EVs, military systems, aerospace manufacturing and advanced technology infrastructure.

Yet despite months of pressure from US industry groups and growing concern over supply-chain vulnerabilities, the summit produced no detailed framework about future access or export guarantees.

Nigel Green explains, “Rare earths are at the heart of the global industrial race.” “Washington wanted stability. Wanted market visibility. Nobody emerged from Beijing.”

Semiconductors represent another major semiconductor.

The US continues to ban advanced AI chip exports to China, while Beijing accelerates efforts to create domestic alternatives and reduce dependence on US technology.

Deavere’s chief executive says the lapse will have a huge impact on investors globally.

“AI has become one of the most powerful investment themes in the world economy,” he says.

“But the infrastructure behind AI is increasingly being shaped by geopolitical confrontation. The summit gave no indication that either side is ready to back down.”

Taiwan also remained unresolved under diplomatic theatre.

Xi Jinping reportedly reiterated Beijing’s hardline positions during private discussions, while Trump avoided major public tensions. Markets interpreted the restraint positively, but Nigel Green warned that underlying tensions remain severe.

“Taiwan is one of the biggest geopolitical risk factors facing global markets. Any downturn would immediately impact semiconductors, shipping routes, defense spending, commodity prices and global equities.”

The summit also failed to generate meaningful clarity about the future of the tariffs originally imposed during the US-China trade war.

Average US tariffs on many Chinese goods remain well above pre-2018 levels, while Beijing has continued to retaliate in several areas. Global manufacturers have spent years restructuring supply chains amid uncertainty.

Nigel Green says businesses were hoping for clear direction.

“Corporate leaders wanted evidence of a long-term framework for economic engagement,” he says.

“Instead, they got broad political language designed to soothe emotions without addressing the structural cracks beneath.”

He also points to the contradictions within the economic announcements.

US Trade Representative Jameson Greer talked about future large agricultural purchases from China, while Treasury Secretary Scott Besant suggested that some key commodity arrangements have already been effectively locked in place under earlier agreements.

Nigel Green concluded, “Mixed messaging creates more uncertainty, not less.”

“Washington and Beijing may have lowered the temperature publicly, but the unresolved economic conflict is still alive beneath the surface.”

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