The impact is being felt far beyond the Middle East, with UN agencies warning that rising fuel prices, disrupted shipping routes and growing financial uncertainty are putting increasing pressure on economies, labor markets and vulnerable families across Asia and other developing regions.
Before the latest tensions, the Strait of Hormuz handled about a fifth of the global oil supply – about 20 million barrels per day – as well as vast quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and raw materials for vital industries, making it one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
ship traffic last week Transit fluctuated between only two and 16 ships per day – significantly less than the more than 100 ships that typically transited daily before the crisis..
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but important shipping route connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the wider Arabian Sea. It is located between Iran in the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates in the south.
Global growth and trade disruptions
The sharp decline has sent oil and gas prices soaring, supply chains disrupted and transportation and insurance costs rising around the world, with markets reacting nervously to the daily uncertainty.
Global growth is now projected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026 – well below pre-pandemic levelsAccording to a report released by economists on Tuesday UNCTADUnited Nations trade and development body.
After good performance last year, global trade growth is also expected to weaken sharply.
Inflation is rising across Asia
The economic outlook for Asia has deteriorated sharply since the crisis escalatedInflation is rising in many countries and consumer confidence is weakening, According To the United Nations Regional Economic Commission, escape.
In the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, headline inflation – which measures overall consumer prices – rose from 6.2 percent in February to more than 10 percent in April. In Pakistan too, inflation increased from 7.3 percent in March to 10.9 percent in April.
East Asia – the region’s economic engine – is also expected to slow, with growth projected to decline from 5.0 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent in 2026 as higher energy costs and trade uncertainty cloud the outlook.
Families in Myanmar have been hit hard by rising prices, with the most vulnerable struggling to meet their daily needs.
Currencies are weakening
Many regional currencies have weakened against the US dollar, while borrowing costs have risen as investors reassess risks.
In Nepal, for example, one US dollar traded at around 154.5 rupees on Tuesday – about 10 rupees higher than in early February – with import costs rising rapidly in the heavily import-dependent economy.
ESCAP warned that many developing countries have fuel reserves of less than three months of imports, increasing the risk of supply pressures if instability persists.
also warned A prolonged crisis could cause economic disruption equivalent to the 1973 oil shockThat includes risks of recession and double-digit inflation in weak economies.
Myanmar families are struggling
Its impact is already visible in countries facing ongoing humanitarian and economic crises.
In Myanmar, where conflict and displacement have already devastated livelihoods, fuel prices have tripled across the country since late February and the cost of the basic food basket has skyrocketed.
“One in four people in Myanmar is severely food insecure,“United Nations World Food Program They sayWarning that rising fuel and fertilizer prices are threatening both household survival and the upcoming monsoon planting season.
united nations news spoke with Michael Dunford, the agency’s country director in Myanmar, about the impact on vulnerable communities. Listen to the interview here.
labor market under stress
International Labor Organization (ILO)ilo) caution The crisis is rapidly impacting jobs, wages and working conditions around the world through higher energy costs, weaker tourism, disrupted migration and slowed trade.
“Apart from the humanitarian damage, the Middle East crisis is not a short-term disruption,Sanghon Lee, the UN agency’s chief economist, said.This is a slow-moving and potentially long-lasting shock that will gradually reshape labor markets.“
Under a scenario drawn up by the agency – in which oil prices remain about 50 percent above their initial average through 2026 – global working hours could decline by 0.5 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2027, equivalent to about 14 million and 38 million full-time jobs, respectively.
Livelihoods at stake
Global real labor income could decline by $3 trillion by 2027The ILO estimates that Asia-Pacific and Arab states are among the most affected regions due to their dependence on Gulf energy flows, shipping routes and labor migration.
The agency also warned that many labor-sending economies in the Gulf have already seen a sharp decline in worker deployment, while remittance flows – a vital source of income for millions of households – are weakening.
“If the crisis disrupts both deployment and remittance flows, Its impact can extend to consumption, poverty and local employment in the countries of origin,ILO warned.
escape notes The crisis has revealed a broader lesson for an increasingly unstable world economy: Countries that invest in resilience and prepare for energy and supply shocks are better placed to withstand future shocks – Whoever the driver is.
