At the climax of the June 2 primary for California governor, voters are closely divided among three candidates vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom at a perilous moment in the state and nation’s history, according to a poll released Thursday.
According to a UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, 25% of likely California voters support Xavier Becerra, a Democrat and former Biden Cabinet secretary. Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator and British political strategist, has support of 21%, while billionaire hedge fund founder-turned-environmental activist Tom Steyer, a Democrat, has 19% support.
California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra takes a selfie at an event while campaigning in San Francisco, California on May 26, 2026. Becerra is the former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services and is running as a democratic candidate for governor. California’s statewide election is June 2.
(Benjamin Fanjoy/Getty Images)
The survey provided the clearest indication yet that the three have isolated themselves from the rest of the field. Support for Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer increased since the last Berkeley IGS poll in March. Becerra outshone everyone. In early March he was at the bottom among likely voters with only 5% support, and now he is in the lead.
Other candidates faltered. Support for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, has declined 5% and now finds himself in fourth place. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irwin’s percentage fell nearly in half, to 7%. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Supt. Public Instruction Tony Thurmond – all Democrat – remained stuck in the single digits.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo cautioned that while it is unclear which candidates will finish first and second in the June 2 primary, it is an important question because only the top two finishers will advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation. The low turnout so far has made the outcome particularly difficult to predict.
Although every registered voter in California was sent a mail-in ballot, many have not returned them or dropped them off at polling locations — a clear indication of the uncertain nature of this year’s governor’s race. DiCamillo said the survey, which included all 61 gubernatorial candidates on the ballot, found that Democratic turnout so far is significantly lower than in previous primary elections.
California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton arrives for a news conference at San Jose Diridon Station on Tuesday, May 26, 2026 in San Jose, California, US. Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton is announcing his intention to block future taxpayer-funded payments for California’s high-speed rail project if elected in November.
(Jason Henry/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“We are assuming that … the Democrats will really come out in the final weeks after our polling closes and start laying the groundwork for what looks like an early lead for Hilton, and those voters are favoring Becerra,” DiCamillo said.
The poll, conducted between May 19 and 24, found that likely Democratic voters preferred Becerra over Steyer by 11 percentage points. Voters registered as “no party preference” were evenly divided between Becerra, Steyer, and Hilton. Among likely Republican voters, Hilton outpolled Bianco by nearly 2 to 1.
Becerra had a significant lead over Steyer among women and Latino voters, while Steyer had an edge among black voters. Hilton was favored over the two Democrats among self-identified libertarians and voters in Orange County, the Central Valley, and the North Coast and Sierra region.
The survey found that 7% of voters remained undecided.
For the first time in more than a quarter century, there has been a lack of a consistent frontrunner despite a field of candidates vying to lead the country’s most populous state and the world’s fourth-largest economy.
California’s two best-known Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Senator Alex Padilla, both briefly ran for governor before deciding not to run, which contributed to the remoteness of the race. The 2026 campaign for governor also pales in the shadow of the violence unleashed by President Trump, including his immigration raids throughout Southern California and the devastation caused by the 2025 Pacific Palisades and Altadena wildfires.
But a whirlwind of recent events has drawn attention to the race.
Former Representative Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin), once the frontrunner, withdrew from the race and resigned from Congress after multiple allegations of sexual misconduct and assault, which he denies.
California Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer during a campaign event in Santa Rosa, California, US, on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. California is holding a primary election on June 2. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images
(Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Additionally, record-breaking amounts of money have flowed into the race. Steyer has broken a state self-funding record, contributing $212 million to his campaign as of Tuesday, according to the California Secretary of State’s office. Nearly $85 million has been donated to independent expenditure committees by corporations, labor unions, tech titans, Native American tribes and other special interests, most of which will be the policy interests the next governor faces.
Although the 2026 California governor’s race does not have the glamor of recent contests, which included candidates such as global movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, political scion Jerry Brown and former San Francisco mayor and potential 2028 presidential candidate Gavin Newsom, it is unfolding at a critical time for Californians.
The state’s most vulnerable residents are facing severe cutbacks in medical care due to cuts in federal health care funding, and California’s budget, already unsustainable due to its reliance on the state’s wealthiest residents, could become even more unpredictable. The US–Iran war caused gas prices in California to rise among the highest in the country, deepening the affordability crisis in the state, causing many residents to move out of the state.
According to the survey, cost of living, homelessness and public safety were among the top concerns expressed by voters. Protecting voting rights was also supported by most voters, although their underlying concerns may vary depending on their political views.
Democrats are focused on disenfranchising voters, a fear heightened by a recent Supreme Court decision that gutted a section of the Voting Rights Act that forced states to draw voting districts to help elect Black or Latino representatives to Congress. Republicans repeat President Trump’s claims of election fraud.
Los Angeles, CA – May 06, 2026: Chad Bianco is interviewed after the California gubernatorial debate at the Skirball Cultural Center on Wednesday, May 6, 2026 in Los Angeles, CA.
(Jason Armand/Los Angeles Times)
Voters largely split along party lines on issues such as Trump’s policies regarding climate change, immigration and taxes.
Voter uncertainty in the governor’s race is partly driven by California’s unique, voter-approved “jungle” primary system, in which the two candidates who win the most votes in the June 2 primary advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation.
Although the state’s voters are overwhelmingly registered Democrats, party leaders feared earlier this year that they would splinter among the many Democrats on the ballot, allowing Hilton and Bianco to advance to the November general election and ensuring that a Republican governor would be elected. Bianco had 11% support in the new Berkeley poll.
Republicans were once nearly tied in the polls until Trump endorsed Hilton in April. More than one-third of likely Republican voters said Trump’s endorsement of Hilton would make them more likely to support him. Nearly two-thirds of voters associated with the “Make America Great Again” movement supported Hilton, while less than 3 in 10 supported Bianco.
Although Bianco’s followers appear to be more passionate, “Hilton’s got a much broader base of support, and then she’s got Trump’s support,” DiCamillo said.
He said Hilton’s rise is unusual in California, where statewide candidates typically spend huge sums to boost their visibility among the state’s 23.1 million registered voters.
DiCamillo said, “What’s interesting about Hilton is that she hasn’t done most of her promotion in a traditional way. She hasn’t run a huge amount of television advertising, you don’t see her name in traditional media other than independent media.” “You can see it in the data, because about a third of voters still don’t have an opinion about Hilton … compared to what it was in March, which is shocking for a candidate who is one of the leaders.”
Democrats’ fear of being left out of the November general election led party leaders and allies to make notable public statements in March urging low-polling candidates to effectively drop out of the race.
The tables have since turned – the chances of the two Republicans winning the top spots in the June primaries appear slim to none, while polling shows a small chance of the two Democrats advancing to the general election.
“I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s possible that two Democrats could emerge, and that would have a huge impact on turnout in the (November) election,” DiCamillo said, pointing to the California congressional race. “If you don’t have a Republican at the top of the ticket, it will be disappointing for Republicans’ prospects.”
The survey of 8,578 registered California voters was conducted online in English and Spanish and had a margin of error of about 2 percentage points in either direction.
