A global simulation study shows that school closures due to the pandemic, rather than disrupting learning, have increased inequality and reduced children’s chances of catching up with their parents’ education.
key takeaways
acquisition and mobility
It is estimated that school closures due to COVID-19 will lead to lower educational attainment and weaker intergenerational educational mobility, especially in areas where appropriate recovery measures have not been taken.
underprivileged children
It was estimated that children from less advantaged backgrounds suffered greater learning losses because they had less access to effective sustained learning during school closures.
upward mobility
In some high- and upper-middle-income countries, the share of children with more education than their parents was estimated to decline by about 8 to 9 percentage points.
distance education
Under more optimistic assumptions about the effectiveness of distance learning, inequality sometimes appears worse because better-off children are more likely to benefit from those learning options.
Study: School closures, learning loss and intergenerational mobility due to COVID-19. Image Credit: Zorro Stock Images/Shutterstock
A new study published in the journal Humanities and Social Sciences Communication he finds COVID-19-Related school closures could have far-reaching, long-term effects on educational inequality and social mobility.
Global learning loss and long-term social consequences
Pandemic-related learning loss could reduce educational attainment globally by more than a year on average, with the greatest impact falling on disadvantaged children. According to simulation-based projections, unequal access to distance learning risks widening existing gaps and reversing decades of progress in educational mobility with lasting social and economic consequences.
COVID-19 has disproportionately affected low-income populations and those with limited education or unstable employment. While short-term changes in income inequality have been modest, concerns are growing about long-term effects induced by educational disruptions.
Unequal access to distance education, which is closely linked to income and parental education, increases the risk of unequal human capital loss. Although the economic impacts have been well documented, less is known about the effects of school closures on intergenerational mobility.
Simulation-based study design and data sources
In this study, researchers used a multi-source, simulation-based approach to assess the impact of COVID-19-related learning disruptions on long-term educational inequality and intergenerational mobility.
The team derived baseline estimates of educational attainment and mobility based on the global database on intergenerational mobility (gdim), which spans 153 countries. They used the 1980s birth cohort as a proxy for current students.
The investigators quantified learning loss using adjusted years of schooling (gives), which integrates access and quality of education. They performed statistical modeling using country-specific data on school closures between February 2020 and February 2022.
To capture disparities in learning experiences, the researchers incorporated World Bank phone survey datasets from 30 countries. The survey provided household-level information about children’s engagement with various learning modalities amid school closures. These included direct teacher contact, distance learning through digital or broadcast media, and complete disengagement.
The team assigned a “disadvantage index” to each method to specifically estimate differences in learning loss across socio-economic groups based on parents’ level of education. They then translated these simulated learning losses into counterfactual years of schooling and compared scenarios with and without the pandemic.
By integrating distributional differences within countries, the team estimated changes in both absolute and relative mobility. Absolute mobility change refers to the possibility that children will overtake their parents’ education. Changes in relative mobility reflect the degree of independence from parental background.
Together, these projections provide a globally comparable assessment of the long-term effects of the pandemic on inequality, although the authors emphasize that they are illustrative simulations rather than predictions. They also noted that the main projections reflect a scenario without learning recovery or acceleration measures after the pandemic.
Consequences of global learning loss and declining mobility.
The analysis found that COVID-19 school closures have led to substantial and non-uniform learning losses. The team found that the global average of years of schooling has declined by about 1.2 years. These losses were most pronounced in middle-income countries, where prolonged school closures accelerated the decline. As a result, the percentage of children expected to surpass their parents’ education in some upper-middle- and high-income countries could fall by eight to nine percentage points, effectively reversing decades of progress.
Importantly, these findings highlight serious socio-economic inequalities. Children from less educated families experienced greater disadvantages both in absolute terms (1.5 vs 1.3 years) and in relative terms (23% vs 10%). These findings reflect significant disparities in access to effective education amid school closures.
Data on learning engagement showed that children with more educated parents were more likely to maintain interaction with the teacher. In contrast, disadvantaged students were more likely to disengage altogether or rely on less effective remote modalities.
These disparities translated into declines in mobility measured relative to parents’ education. Under one scenario inter-generational persistence in education increased by about 4% on average, with a much larger increase in some countries. The largest increase, about 19%, was seen in Mongolia.
Other countries with notable increases include Peru (13%), Mexico (9.0%), and the Philippines (8.0%). The findings show that within-country inequalities in access to effective education disproportionately affect mobility amid school closures, with some countries experiencing sharper declines than the global average.
Distribution-sensitive models demonstrated that within-country inequalities in access to learning were the key driver of these trends. Equal-harm assumptions underestimated the actual impact. In particular, more favorable perceptions of distance learning effectiveness further widened the mobility gap, as disadvantaged children were less likely to benefit. The findings highlight the risk of permanently strengthening educational inequality in the absence of effective remedial action.
Long-term implications for education and social mobility
The findings strongly indicate that pandemic-related learning loss could have a lasting impact on intergenerational mobility by exacerbating existing educational inequalities. Disproportionate disadvantage among children from low socio-economic backgrounds risks reinforcing cycles of disadvantage, worsening poverty and limiting long-term opportunities. Without timely intervention, these disruptions could translate into persistent human capital deficits and slower economic growth.
The study highlights the urgent need for targeted recovery measures, including catch-up learning and re-engagement strategies for vulnerable students. Strengthening the resilience of education systems and ensuring equitable access to effective education will also be important to mitigate future disruptions and safeguard social mobility. Further research using longitudinal data is necessary to track mobility outcomes and refine policy responses.
The authors also caution that the estimates rely on modeling assumptions, proxy group data, and survey-based measures of learning modalities, so the exact magnitude of long-term effects remains uncertain.
Journal Reference:
- Cojocaru, A., Azevedo, J.P., Narayan, A., and Montalva Tallado, V. (2026). School closures, learning loss, and intergenerational mobility due to COVID-19. Humanities and Social Sciences Communication. DOI: 10.1057/s41599-026-06967-w, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-026-06967-w
