As MAGA faithful gather for another day of CPAC in Grapevine, Texas, they’re openly celebrating what they believe amounts to a major midterm victory: preventing President Donald Trump from endorsing John Cornyn ahead of May’s GOP Senate primary runoffs.
The MAGA world is taking a victory lap — and fresh comfort — in the accomplishments: the lack of significant spending and polling so far by not only Cornyn’s campaign, but also the NRSC and One Nation, the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned nonprofit. It amounts to a pattern the MAGA group reads as Washington makes peace with a matchup between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, their anointed nominee, and Texas Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.
“Grassroots people stood in the breach and said a resounding ‘no’ to Cornyn,” Steve Bannon, who has framed Paxton’s bid for the nomination as a battle for MAGA’s soul, told Politico. “Polling and spending suggest the Republican D.C. establishment reluctantly agrees. This could be the victory that empowers MAGA in the midterms.”
However, Paxton has not rested his case. He traveled to Mar-a-Lago for the Palm Beach County GOP dinner last Friday and was seen talking to Trump himself, according to three familiar sources.
Trump and Paxton were on the patio, one source said, another said the two discussed the runoff. Another person said, “It was a positive meeting.” A spokesman for Paxton declined to comment on the meeting.
It’s the latest sign of a desperate and blatant effort to stop Trump from endorsing Cornyn.
Even when all signs were pointing towards Cornyn’s endorsement following the longtime senator’s performance in the primary, MAGA loyalists continued to push for Paxton. Now they’re optimistic that their guy can come out on top — and they’re still taking shots at Cornyn whenever they get the chance.
“Cornyn’s support seems to be gone, but this is Trump, so it’s never certain,” said a person close to the White House. “Cornyn sealed his fate by taking down Mitch (McConnell) on that ridiculous gun-grabbing bill. No one thought he would be foolish enough to run for re-election after that, but here we are.”
Now, Trump may not endorse at all. Or if he does, he could support Paxton after the SAVE Act debate ends in the Senate, three sources tell POLITICO.
“Nothing is dead,” said a source familiar with the president’s thinking. “It’s all just pause at the moment.”
Another White House official said, “It looks like he won’t support it at all.” “But he doesn’t seem to have made up his mind.”
But the support equation in Texas amid the SAVE Act saga is still deeply troubling Trump, according to five Republicans in and around the White House. The president, who will not attend this year’s CPAC, is “being patient” and “trying” to score policy wins, another person said.
“Trump is not going to endorse against Cornyn while the Save America Act is still being debated,” a White House aide said. “So for now I think he stays out, but if Thune files cloture and Paxton is ahead in every poll I can see him supporting Paxton. There’s no doubt that if Trump stays out Paxton wins.”
Every Republican who spoke to POLITICO cautioned that Trump could change his mind at any moment. It’s still early in the runoffs, he said, with Election Day still about two months away. But the deadline for one candidate to drop off a ballot passed last week.
A person familiar told POLITICO that the Senate Leadership Fund and NRSC are not spending to conserve resources. “It’s not because they’re throwing in the towel,” this person said.
The campaign will soon be spent, a Cornyn spokesman said. “Ken Paxton said he needed $20 million to win this primary and he’s barely raised a quarter of that,” said Matt Mackowiak, senior adviser to the Cornyn campaign. “His professional failures and erratic personal conduct make GOP donors and Texas primary voters extremely uncomfortable.” He added, “We have a plan to win this race and we are executing it. Ken Paxton is too busy crying and hiding.”
Chris LaCivita, one of Trump’s top campaign aides who works as a senior adviser for the Cornyn-supporting super PAC Texas for the Conservative Majority, said the runoff depends on a resource equation. “The question is the same,” LaCivita said. “Does the GOP want to spend $150-200 million in what should be a safe seat and give up other opportunities to make gains?”
NRSC spokeswoman Joanna Rodriguez said, “It’s very clear that the battle to protect President Trump’s Senate majority should not be fought in Texas, and John Cornyn is the only candidate to make sure that doesn’t happen.”
When it comes to money, Republicans are planning to make MAGA Inc. “responsible for getting the resources needed in the general election,” according to two GOP operatives briefed on the strategy (one cautioned that “planning is probably overpromising.”). MAGA Inc. A spokesperson declined to comment.
On the sidelines of CPAC, where bedazzled and sequenced conservatives gathered for the base’s annual pep rally, the overwhelming sense was that most Texas GOP primary voters had already made up their minds — and supporting Trump in either direction wouldn’t make much of a difference. Some attendees said they viewed Trump’s silence as a provocation toward Paxton.
“Texans – our work is done,” said Republican Gregorio Heise, a Paxton supporter and running for Congress in Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s Dallas district. “It’s already visible, even in the polling. Cornyn doesn’t do what Texans want, and (Paxton) does.”
Friday night at CPAC, attendees will hear from Paxton, who is chairing the conference’s Ronald Reagan Dinner. Cornyn does not plan to attend.
“You know, it’s an opportunity to share your perspective and basically be able to sell yourself to a Texas crowd,” CPAC host and organizer Mercedes Schlapp told Politico. “So Ken Paxton agreed to come, and he has very high CPAC ratings. And you know, we invited Cornyn, and so we’re still open. The invitation is still open for John Cornyn to come.”
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