Republicans once saw Georgia as the crown jewel of their Senate pickup chances. They are now blaming each other as the GOP primary becomes embroiled in an intra-party fight that could cost them their chance to defeat Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff.
The party is battling a crowded field, no strong contender, no endorsement from President Donald Trump — and the reality that the May 19 primary will turn into an expensive, painful runoff in mid-June.
Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), a close Trump ally, Leading in public pollingFormer football coach Derek Dooley, backed by fellow Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Governor Brian Kemp, is vying for the second spot. But a large share of voters are undecided, underscoring how fluid the race is. Meanwhile, incumbent Ossoff — who faces no primary challenger of his own — is keeping his powder dry and has built up a formidable eight-figure campaign war chest ready to deploy in the general election.
“If Ossoff could write a playbook on how he wants to run this primary, this is absolutely it,” said one GOP operative, who, like others interviewed for this story, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the dynamics of the race. He said Georgia is like a “red-headed stepchild” that is not getting any attention from Washington.
Republicans point to several unforced errors that led the party to this point. Some say his current challenges were set in motion last year, when he failed to convince Kemp, the state’s popular outgoing GOP governor, to run for Ossoff’s seat. Others point to a weak effort by the National Republican Senatorial Committee to recruit a strong crop of candidates or unify the field. Many also blame Trump and Kemp, who have sometimes had a strained relationship, for failing to agree on a candidate they could both support in order to avoid an expensive primary.
“It’s not ideal that it looks like this is going to go away,” said Cole Muzio, chair of the conservative Frontline Policy Council. “There was a lot of discussion about Kemp and Trump coming together and finding a nominee together, landing a plane on a person. I’m not going to try to sort out what happened with that, but a unity nominee would have been ideal.”
The initial finger-pointing that emerged in conversations with a dozen GOP strategists and officials in Georgia reflects his deep pessimism about his primary situation and his chances of holding on to the Senate majority. The party is blocking competing Democratic candidates in several red states as voters anger Trump’s agenda, making Georgia an even greater priority.
“This is a mess that could have been a lot less messy if they had figured it out six months ago,” said a second Georgia-based Republican strategist unaffiliated with either campaign. “Everyone is resigned to the runoffs in May and then June and then picking up the pieces.”
Early general election voting shows ossoff pioneer All three potential GOP candidates are facing off. After five years in the Senate, he ran a formidable political campaign, winning statewide and garnering a major fundraising haul.
Ryan Mahoney, a GOP strategist unaffiliated with the race, said, “Jon Ossoff has $24 million. Jon Ossoff is on TV all the time, carefully explaining his positions, interrogating Tulsi Gabbard – really organized.” “They have a lot of resources — great name ID, a lot of exposure — while the Republicans are fighting against each other, trying to see who can break through and ultimately become the nominee.”
“He’s in great shape,” Mahoney said.
Still, many Republicans say they are confident about their chances in a state that Trump won in 2024, and they expect funding and outside support to increase dramatically once their candidacy is decided.
“Republicans created this problem. We created this problem, and no one person created it,” said another GOP strategist. “I still think a Republican can win, I just think we’re making it more difficult.”
with surrounding 40 percent With potential GOP primary voters still undecided, Senate candidates are running for Trump’s blessing — an endorsement that could be crucial in deciding the future of the race, according to recent public polling.
All three candidates have contacted the White House directly. In an interview with a conservative host Clay Travis’s Outkick PodcastDooley said he met Trump in the Oval Office last year and had a “very interesting conversation.” Carter, for his part, told Politico in a brief interview that his campaign is continuing “to talk to the administration” about the race. Collins and the president also met and discussed the race, according to a person familiar with the conversations. In February, Collins appeared on stage with the President during an event focused on Trump’s economic agenda in Rome, Georgia.
Collins’ recent campaign issued a long memo Outlining the argument why the region should unify around the primary. “(Democrats) are watching as Republicans are turning the midterms’ best opportunity into an unnecessary intraparty fight that wastes time and resources,” the memo reads. “Instead of focusing on defeating Jon Ossoff for the 2026 majority, Republicans are on track to unify by the end of June, after a runoff, leaving only four months for the Republican nominee to raise money and campaign to oust the Democrat from office in the largest state east of the Mississippi.”
Most outside groups are apparently waiting to line up behind the leading contender, although the Club for Growth PAC, a prominent conservative super PAC, has already done so. Supported Collins’ campaign — an unusual move for a group that typically works in line with the White House’s political strategy.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment regarding Trump’s thinking about the primary or his conversations with the three candidates.
Then there’s the Kemp factor.
After the governor declined to contest, Republicans feared the primary could become a proxy war between him and Trump, who previously clashed over Trump’s insistence that the 2020 election in Georgia was fraudulent. This has not been entirely successful, with the President still out of the running. But Kemp’s decision to support former football coach Dooley means it is unlikely they will find common ground.
Dooley has no prior experience in politics. State voting records show the former coach Did not vote in the presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 – Attack your opponents because they want Trump’s support. (he voted for trump in 2024)
“It’s no secret that the profile of the candidate that President Trump would prefer is very different from the profile of the candidate that Governor Kemp would prefer,” said a third local GOP strategist, who is unaffiliated with the race. “The collusion between them has made it very difficult, if not impossible, to come up with a consensus candidate.”
Kemp spokesman Garrison Douglas doubled down on the governor’s support for Dooley in a statement, saying he is “not wasting time worrying about complaints from anonymous consultants.” Dooley spokesman Connor Whitney said he was confident Georgia voters would “elect the only political outsider in this race – not another old D.C. politician.”
Carter spokesman Chris Crawford rejected criticism of running a disorganized primary, saying that “only consultants in Washington think it’s a problem for voters to choose their candidate.”
Collins, in a statement, expressed confidence in her ability to win the primary, and said her campaign would “welcome any help to ensure we can make it through May and get into the primary.”
With Georgia in a holding pattern, some local Republicans worry that Washington’s attention is turning to Michigan, where former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers has united the party – and president – A trio of Democrats are battling it out in their own messy primaries in the state’s key battleground Senate race.
“There’s attack and defense. I think on offense, (Georgia) is still a top race. I think the only difference is that Michigan is a clear field. Rogers is ready to roll. He’s raising money. The Dems have messed up on their side there,” said a national Republican familiar with the party’s midterm strategy, who was granted anonymity to discuss behind-the-scenes planning.
Still, the person said he believes Georgia will remain competitive, especially if Republicans unify.
In a statement, NRSC spokesman Nick Puglia said Ossoff is “the most vulnerable incumbent on the map” and that Georgia “has been and remains a top state for Republicans to expand President Trump’s Senate majority.”
But Republicans in the Peach State are skeptical.
“I feel like from some Republicans that maybe Michigan is a better opportunity, and certainly, one reason for that is that, ‘Well, the field has cleared out,'” said a fourth GOP strategist in Georgia.
“It seems like DC is moving to Michigan because of a problem they can solve today,” said another Georgia-based GOP strategist.
