One of the best House pickup opportunities for Democrats this fall could jeopardize their 2028 presidential prospects.
Democrats are optimistic they can finally win back Nebraska’s purple 2nd District, especially after Representative Don Bacon (R-Neb.) opted not to seek re-election.
But the current Democratic leader, state Senator John Kavanaugh, would have to give up his state legislative seat if elected to Congress — and his replacement would be selected by the governor. That risks handing the GOP a filibuster-proof majority that could draw new congressional maps to make the seat safely Republican, or get rid of the state’s split Electoral College setup that has given Democrats an electoral vote in recent presidential elections as their candidates carried the district.
It’s the paradox of Nebraska’s 2nd District: A win this year could put Democrats at a massive disadvantage in 2028.
Kavanaugh, along with many Democrats, says he is confident the party can flip legislative seats this time so that his seat loss does not change the balance of power, citing both the national political climate and anger at Republican legislators who have gone against the will of state voters in recent statewide referendums. But others — including several of Kavanaugh’s Democratic primary opponents — argue the risk is too great.
“I’ve spent the last 20 years trying to build political power, and now we’re making the unforced mistake of allowing a state legislator who desperately needs … to at least give us a fighting chance to stop him from doing bad things,” said Crystal Rhodes, a Douglas County district court clerk and former county party chair who is one of Kavanaugh’s primary opponents.
Democrats are one seat short of the votes needed to block the legislation in the state’s unicameral legislature. Last year, they joined with a single Republican, state Sen. Merv Rippe, to block a near-complete abortion ban as well as efforts to redistrict the state.","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/28/the-republicans-thwarting-the-white-houses-redistricting-hopes-00625911","_Identification": :"0000019d-52eb-d501-adff-f3eb95680000","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-52eb-d501-adff-f3eb95680001","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>efforts to redistribute the state To make the 2nd District safely Republican. In 2024, Republicans failed in efforts to get rid of Nebraska’s divided Electoral College vote system","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/24/nebraska-electoral-college-donald-trump-00180743","_Identification": :"0000019d-52eb-d501-adff-f3eb95690000","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-52eb-d501-adff-f3eb95690001","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Get rid of Nebraska’s divided Electoral College vote systemWhich can affect the presidency in a close election.
Kamala Harris’s victory in Nebraska’s 2nd district in 2024 meant she would have won the presidency if she had won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; But if Nebraska had not split its electoral votes, in that scenario he and President Donald Trump would have been tied with 269 electoral votes.
If Republicans win seats in the legislature and keep the governor’s mansion this November, they will have another chance to snatch away Democrats’ chances in Nebraska ahead of the 2028 elections. It’s a scenario Democrats are eager to prevent.
“We’re targeting about five seats in rural Nebraska this time,” said Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party. “We’re prepared that we could lose (Kavanaugh’s) seat. So that means we’re going to have to pick up a few more seats this cycle.”
The Democrats’ path to breaking the filibuster-proof majority will not be easy. Reep is the only Republican up for reelection this cycle representing a district that Harris won in 2024. There are two Republican-held seats where Harris lost but was won by independent US Senate candidate Dan Osborn two years ago. Additionally, Democrats must win in deep red areas.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is investing in the state for the first time in several cycles.
Kavanaugh, in an interview, expressed optimism about the party’s prospects, pointing to strong candidates in several districts.
Cavanaugh said, “I’ve worked myself to try to bring resources to Nebraska to help us flip the race in past elections, and I think when we invest, we win. But the important thing is to have good quality candidates who match their district, and we have that.”
He said much of the discussion about the risks of giving up his seat was coming from his primary opponents, and argued that voters were more focused on issues affecting their everyday lives.
“Voters are increasingly concerned about holding Donald Trump accountable, about affordability, about ACA tax credits and the cost of gas and groceries,” Kavanaugh said.
Seven current state senators have endorsed Kavanaugh, a sign that they are not worried that losing their seats would jeopardize the party’s legislative agenda. He has led publicly released internal polls, and has also received support from labor unions and the political action committee of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
“The people who are most affected by both state and national legislation are the ones supporting him, and the people who have served with him know he can do it,” said State Senator George Dungan, who represents a purple district covering northeast Lincoln and is among Kavanaugh’s supporters.
But not everyone is convinced that Democrats can enact legislative change this year. One progressive from Nebraska, who is not involved in the race for the 2nd District, granted anonymity to speak candidly, saying it was “illusion” to expect the party to gain enough seats to overcome the 17-vote filibuster while giving up Kavanaugh’s seat.
In Omaha, previous Republican efforts to gerrymander the district have led Democrats to rally around the concept of their “blue dot” within the red state.
“The level of passion and energy around Blue Dot and the division on the electoral vote and the role of Nebraska-2 in that was huge. People would get Blue Dot manicures, and their dogs were wearing Blue Dot bandanas,” said Dennis Powell, who is also running in the primary and previously ran a PAC supporting female candidates in Nebraska.
Both Powell and Rhodes have tried to highlight how Kavanaugh’s candidacy poses a threat to Blue Dot, and their campaigns have indicated to outside groups that they would like to see ads on the topic. Powell said he expects Nebraska Democrats to be able to win several legislative seats this year. But she doesn’t want to believe it.
He said, “We’re a red state, and it’s really hard, even with great candidates doing all the right things.”
