The forum bid on when US airmen would be evacuated from the country following the response.
Prediction platform Polymarket has apologized for allowing users to bet on whether US airmen killed by a downed US fighter plane would be rescued from Iran after facing a backlash over questionable ethics.
On Friday, a two-seat F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran, prompting the US to launch a high-risk extraction mission. US officials said one crew member was evacuated immediately after the crash, but it took more than 24 hours for the US to find and extract the other, an operation that reportedly involved multiple helicopters and CIA deception tactics.
Although Iranian officials have denied that the operation was successful, claiming Tehran destroyed a C-130 military transport aircraft and two Black Hawk helicopters, videos showing the wreckage of the aircraft are circulating on social media.
Uncertainty about the fate of US service members prompted the now-deleted bets, which allowed users to buy ‘yes’ or ‘no’ positions on whether the airmen would be recovered by April 3 or April 4, with about 63% of traders predicting a rescue on Saturday.
Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton was one of the first to highlight the condition, writing on Twitter: “this is sick.” They could be your neighbors, friends, family members. “And people are betting on whether they will be rescued or not.”
Polymarket immediately removed the bet, responding to Moulton: “We immediately shut down this marketplace because it does not meet our integrity standards. It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how it missed our internal security measures.”
However, Moulton did not consider the apology sufficient, saying that Polymarket’s “There is a severe lack of integrity standards,” Dozens of other active battles are still visible on the platform, pointing to the stakes.
Remembering Donald Trump Jr., he also targeted the Trump administration. “There is an investor in this dystopian death market and he may have access to intelligence that is not yet public.”
The episode is the latest in a series of Polymarket controversies linked to the Iran war. According to multiple media reports, six suspected insiders collectively won $1.2 million by betting that the US would attack Iran on February 28 – the same day that the coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes began – with the funds all deposited into the accounts within hours of the attack.
Israeli prosecutors filed separate charges against an IDF reservist and a civilian for using classified military intelligence to place bets on Polymarket during the Twelve-Day War in June 2025.
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