Republicans have found their health care message for the midterms: fraud.
The White House and Congress have taken major public steps in recent months to expose widespread fraud in several blue states, taking action after YouTuber Nick Shirley went viral last year in a video exposing fraudulent Medicaid providers in Minnesota.
Vice President J.D. Vance and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz are playing high-profile roles in the fight. Vance this spring established a new fraud task force and swore in a new assistant attorney general, whose main job is to focus on fraud. Oz has released a series of viral videos on CMS’s efforts to combat fraud and launched investigations in several states.
In Congress, several House committees have launched their own investigations, asking 10 states to answer on their fraud guardrails and investigating California hospice fraud.
The looming question: Will the Republican crackdown translate into votes at a time when America faces a high cost of living, including rising Obamacare premiums?
Republicans argue it will help deflect complaints about health care affordability during Trump’s first year in office, as well as counter Democratic attacks on the more than $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts in last year’s One Big Beautiful Big Act, which polls show is also unpopular.
Medicaid reform, including expanded work requirements, was “focused on trying to address fraud, such as through integrity checks,” Energy and Commerce Chairman Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) said on March 17 after a contentious hearing on the issue. “We are seeing fraud that we are trying to address.”
Guthrie said voters want to see a solution.
“I always say good governance is good politics and addressing fraud is good politics,” he said.
But many strategists and experts say messaging on fraud is unlikely to sway voters.
“Cracking down on fraud can help Republicans reinforce the message of accountability and leadership, but it is not a substitute for addressing what voters care about most — reducing health costs,” Joel White, a GOP health strategist and president of Horizon Government Affairs, said in a statement. “Unless it is paired with a clear plan to reduce costs, anti-fraud efforts are unlikely to outweigh those concerns in 2026.”
The Case for Why It Might Work
Republicans counter polling that shows fraudulent practices could attract Trump voters, who are unlikely to turn out in midterm elections when the president himself is not on the ballot.
“The voters that Republicans need to win the House midterms are angry about fraud,” Jonathan Ingram, vice president of policy and research at the conservative think tank Foundation for Government Accountability, said in an interview.
foundation held a referendum","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://excellenceinpolling.com/?post_type=poll&p=4538","_Identification": :"0000019d-603a-d753-a9dd-f1fb2d250006","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-603a-d753-a9dd-f1fb2d250007","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>conducted a survey Releases in January for low-propensity Trump voters — those who voted for Trump in 2024 but not at all in 2022 — showed 85 percent support efforts to combat waste, fraud and abuse. Another 61 percent of those voters say the government should do more to combat welfare fraud.
Other polls from the think tank have shown that voters connect the dots that fraud comes with high costs, Ingram said.
He said, “Every dollar that taxpayers spend on a disabled person … is not worth funding people with disabilities.”
Republicans also point to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s decision not to run for a third term as evidence that the administration’s messaging on fraud is working. Walz’s administration took several actions to combat fraud in 2025, including closing a program that used Medicaid funds to fund housing services.
The fraud, which was perpetrated by some members of the Somali immigrant community, led to mass immigration across the state, leading to the fatal shootings of two Americans by ICE officers.
In a dramatic, unprecedented move, CMS proposed cutting future Medicaid payments to states by more than $2 billion due to noncompliance. The fines have been put on hold after the agency approved Minnesota’s action plan to prevent future fraud.
One of the key races in the state is focusing on this issue.
Minnesota Republican Senate candidate Michelle Tafoya, a former broadcast sports journalist, has highlighted fraud in her campaign for an open seat.
“Minnesotans are fed up. This was hidden from them, and then as it started coming out, they got more and more frustrated,” he said during an interview on Fox News on March 5. “I think it’s really going to energize people to the polls this November.”
Tafoya’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
‘The wind is in his face’
But while others acknowledge that fighting fraud has often been a popular GOP issue, they doubt it will sway many voters at a time when Americans are focused on the rising cost of living.
“If you get insurance in the private sector or take an ACA exchange plan, it has no direct impact on your own premium,” said Avik Roy, a health policy expert and president and co-founder of the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, a free market think tank. “The real question is … who has the most relevant credibility on the question of rising health costs. I don’t think either party has done a good job of this.”
Democrats and allied groups seized on health care as a major affordability issue after Republicans failed to extend tax credits extended to Affordable Care Act plans that were expiring last year.
He began pushing the GOP on Medicaid cuts as soon as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was passed last spring. A The New York Times and the University of SiennaJanuary survey from","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/01/26/polls/times-siena-national-poll-crosstabs.html","_Identification": :"0000019d-603a-d753-a9dd-f1fb2d250008","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-603a-d753-a9dd-f1fb2d250009","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>January survey of The New York Times and University of Siena Found that 56 percent of respondents somewhat or strongly oppose Medicaid cuts. That gives Democrats an opportunity because they see the cuts ahead of the midterms as an attack on health care access.
He doesn’t think fraud will come to the GOP’s rescue in the fall.
“Allegations of fraud are not a winning hand when they have to defend the cuts,” Brad Woodhouse, president and CEO of Protect Our Care, a progressive advocacy group fighting against Medicaid cuts, said in an interview.
Republicans have responded that the cuts are aimed at reducing fraud and waste in Medicaid. The legislation calls for new work requirements for federal aid recipients and cuts tools used by states to extract more federal Medicaid dollars.
Woodhouse said a big fraud push could attract voters who already plan to support the GOP in November, but would not bring out those who are angry at the party about high gas and health costs.
“I don’t think it will move him toward Republicans in a political environment where the wind is in his face,” he said.
A survey released in January Health Research Organization KFF","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://www.kff.org/public-opinion/health-care-costs-tops-the-publics-economic-concern-as-the-runup-to-the-midterms-begins-independent-voters-are-more-likely-to-trust-democrats-than-republicans-on-the-issue/#:~:text=%20public%20was%20given%20a, The issue is%20President%20Trump%20%20champions.","_Identification": :"0000019d-603a-d753-a9dd-f1fb2d260000","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-603a-d753-a9dd-f1fb2d260001","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Health Research Organization KFF 56 percent of survey respondents expect health costs to be less affordable this year. One in five say their health costs have increased faster than other expenses like groceries.
The same poll showed that 35 percent of independents surveyed trusted Democrats to tackle health costs, compared to 15 percent of Republicans.
one more chance
White said Republicans will need to do more than crackdown on fraud to win back voters on health.
“Republicans should highlight that they are protecting taxpayer dollars and trying to keep costs down,” he said. “And that means implementing health reform this year to lower premiums by 2027.”
But it’s unclear what action Republicans will take this year.
The most likely path to additional reforms is through reconciliation, a spending bill that could avoid a filibuster in the Senate that requires 60 votes to break. However, a reconciliation package must adhere to certain budget rules and may limit the scope of any reforms.
For example, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed the House last year as a reconciliation package with several reforms to address the ACA’s restrictions on eligibility in the exchanges and Medicaid. However, they improved. That included cutting Medicaid dollars to states that provide coverage to undocumented immigrants with their own funds, did not meet Senate rules because they were not strictly budgetary items and were removed from the final package.
The Republican leadership is considering reconciliation to help with immigration enforcement and the Iran war, but it is unclear what health policies might be included.
House Budget Committee Chairman Jody Arrington (R-Texas) recently told Axios that he wants to include reforms that target waste, fraud and abuse. This includes legislation to crack down on privately run Medicare Advantage plans that seek to get more money by making patients appear sicker than they really are.
White suggested several improvements that could be incorporated, such as enabling rebates from the website TrumpRx to be applied to out-of-pocket insurance to reduce costs for consumers.
But talks on reconciliation are still in their early stages and Republicans have not decided what policies they will focus on. There remains hesitation in the party to fully pursue health care reform due to other major reform efforts, such as the futile ACA repeal effort in 2017 or the failure to extend the enhanced ACA tax credits last year.
Roy said, “A lot of Republicans have thought of health care as a kind of hot stove. They were burned out by that experience and were scared and lacked confidence.” “My argument is that there are things that are consistent with your values that reduce health care costs.”
