At the inauguration of United States President Donald Trump in January 2025, there was only one European leader on the guest list – Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. A month earlier, she was photographed having an intimate conversation with Trump in the dining room of the Elysee Palace, where French President Emmanuel Macron was hosting a celebration to mark the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris.
From the beginning of Trump’s second term as US President, Meloni – once on the fringes of Italian politics with his particular brand of neoliberal, far-right views – was seen as a “chosen leader”, with European leader Trump saying he could work with him to “straighten the world up a bit”. He fondly referred to her as “a real live wire” during his visit to the White House in April last year – once again, the first European leader to visit after Trump announced sweeping global trade tariffs.
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Melonie grabbed it. Presenting herself to the world as the only European who can ease Trump’s trade war, she called him a “brilliant man” and said that, with him, she would “make the West great again”.
A little more than a year later, that friendship has now ended — because of Trump’s war on Iran.
“When we don’t agree, we must say it. And this time, we don’t agree,” he said of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran during his visit to the Gulf region last weekend — the first by a Western leader since the beginning of the war.
Meloni’s words were the clearest indication yet that she is finally saying “no” to Donald Trump, along with Italian officials’ refusal to allow U.S. bombers to refuel at a military base in southern Italy a week earlier.
a collapsing bridge
“She wanted to play the role of bridge between Trump and European allies, and initially it seemed like a good idea,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, a professor of political science at the Luiss University in Rome. “But today it’s become a liability and she’s trying to fix it.”
With the onset of the US-Israeli war in Iran, Meloni’s delicate balancing act of appeasing Trump while dealing with the political and economic fallout of the war, on which the country was not immediately consulted, became a major headache.
The referendum shows that a solid majority Italians are against the war in Iran, especially as a result of rising energy prices, and the proportion of those who have a positive view of Trump has fallen from 35 to 35. 19 percent. Analysts say Meloni will face major elections in Italy next year, so this cannot be ignored.
Last month, voters overwhelmingly rejected a referendum on judicial reform proposed by Meloni, in a poll that analysts say was part of an effort to express their disapproval of Meloni and their unwavering support for the increasingly erratic US president.
61 percent of voters aged 18-34 voted against his proposals. It was the first major defeat for Meloni, who has led a largely stable coalition since coming to power – which is unusual for the usually turbulent Italian politics.
“The outcome of the referendum can be partly attributed to the fact that many young people voted against it, not because of the merits of the referendum’s objective, but because of the situation in the Middle East, their lack of explicit criticism towards Trump’s world vision, which relies on force rather than the rule of law – these are the people who went to the polls,” said Ettore Greco, vice president of the Rome-based think tank Istituto Affari International (IAI).
a delicate balance
The war in Iran is not just a political matter for Italy – there are larger economic concerns as well.
The country is particularly sensitive to rising energy prices due to the ongoing conflict, which is affecting markets across Europe. After Germany, Italy is the EU’s second-largest natural gas consumer, relying on the fuel for about 40 percent of its energy needs. But about a fifth of the world’s energy exports are currently stuck in the Gulf because Iran has almost completely blocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli attacks.
Last week, citing the ill effects of the war, the government drew the ire of Italian businesses when it cut funding for a program designed to support investment; Bank of Italy forecast The Italian economy will grow by 0.5 percent this year and next, undercutting previous projections. And, in another blow, the National Institute of Statistics in Rome reported that the country’s deficit has exceeded the EU’s 3 percent limit, meaning it still cannot exit the bloc’s infringement procedure, which would give Meloni more fiscal flexibility ahead of elections next year.
However, this is unlikely to mark a complete end to Meloni’s efforts towards the US President.
Her desire to find a balance between condemning Trump for his aggressive foreign policy and maintaining a warm relationship with him has been evident in her mild announcements. In mid-March, he refused to send military ships to the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump’s demand, aligning himself with the stance of other European countries. But, at the same time, he has not directly condemned the US-led conflict.
Ultimately, something has to be done to free ourselves from the clutches of Donald Trump.
“This is a woman who is very cautious, practical and politically astute,” D’Alimonte said. “She is not going to put all her eggs in one basket… She will still hold the line and move towards European allies – step by step until she can distance herself without breaking ties.”
