Republicans are relieved by Trump’s steps toward Iran reconciliation — but they worry the measures are too little, too late to save them from a brutal midterm election cycle.
Behind the public celebration by many Republicans of the announcement of the temporary two-week ceasefire, longtime party activists are warning of a bleak political reality, as subsistence concerns surround the war, including rising gas prices, which are likely to continue for weeks if not longer, even if the fragile ceasefire remains in place.
A person close to the White House put it bluntly, granting anonymity to speak candidly.
“This war in Iran almost cements the fact that we lost the midterms — Senate and House — in November,” the person said.
Concerns have been heightened by Republicans’ poor performance in recent elections, raising fears that voters, worried about pocketbook issues, are eager for change. The war, even if it ends now, is likely to have a long-term impact on the prices of gas and other commodities, which Republicans will be forced to defend, much as they might try to talk about tax cuts or border security.
“We’re not going to take the proverbial bullet to correct this direction,” said Barrett Marson, a longtime GOP strategist in Arizona. “Time is not on the president’s side when it comes to the election in November.”
Trump and his top advisers have spent much of the past few months arguing that the country is on the verge of an economic turnaround — something that will become clear as soon as the policies of the so-called One Big Beautiful bill take full effect.
Instead, the Iran war has put the president and his allies on the defensive, overshadowing their economic message while obscuring the stark economic realities of many voters. Iran has used the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil flows, to gain leverage over the US in the war, which has sent gas prices rising across the country.
White House aides pointed to the decline in oil and natural gas prices and the stock market surge after Trump’s ceasefire announcement as evidence that the president’s promises are coming true. He also argues that the benefits of his economic policies – including the tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful bill – have not yet been fully realized by voters.
“As energy markets begin to stabilize, historic tax refund checks arrive in the mail, and the rest of the Trump Administration’s pro-growth agenda takes effect, Americans can rest assured that the best is yet to come,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.
Republicans have a more gloomy outlook because the party continues to underperform Trump by wide margins in all types of polls.
This trend accelerated on Tuesday. Georgia Democrat Shawn Harris lost the special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene’s old House seat by 12 points, but he cut Trump’s landslide victory in the district to 37 points in 2024. And in Wisconsin, a Democratic-aligned state Supreme Court candidate won a landslide victory, and did so by carrying GOP strongholds in the state.
Democrats have continued to attack Trump for war, and they have seized on the high gas prices that have already resulted in exacerbating his main campaign focus: affordability. Polling from Democratic firm Navigator Research The release Wednesday found that 65 percent of voters disapprove of how Trump is handling gas prices, which have risen to an average of more than $4 a gallon; While 71 percent believed that prices increased because of the war in Iran.
Republicans acknowledge that the Democrats’ affordability argument is working. One Republican strategist from Georgia pointed to the fact that the war — which has also largely divided the MAGA base over foreign intervention — “is also an affordability issue.”
“Trump is going to capture that,” said the strategist, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
“I don’t think any Georgia Republican who understands the average Georgia voter would want Trump to come here,” he said. “Especially if (Trump’s favorability) is in the high 30s or mid-30s, if he’s in the mid-30s it would be a terrible blood bath. Holy crap.”
Trump’s current job approval rating is 39 percent, According to New York Times aggregate.
Still, some GOP strategists are optimistic that the president has time to turn the economy around — and his election prospects. After Trump’s announcement Tuesday night, U.S. oil fell from a high of nearly $113 to about $94 a barrel, but still well above pre-war levels.
On Wednesday, White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt told reporters that Trump would travel to Arizona and Nevada to promote his economic policies.
“You’ll hear a lot from the President about how his policies have benefited the American people,” Leavitt said in announcing the trips.
A Republican running in a swing state agreed that there is plenty of time before November.
“There’s a lot of opportunity here to try to set this record straight,” Mike Rogers, a Republican who is running for Michigan’s open Senate seat, told POLITICO in an interview on Wednesday when asked about the affordability.
“Anytime you have a nation at war, you’re concerned,” Rogers said, “but I think he thinks the president is going in the right direction and accomplishing what he needs to accomplish by taking off the board a terrorist state that is capable of threatening everybody.”
As far as Tuesday’s results are concerned, Rogers doesn’t see any connection to his state.
He said, “Wisconsin is Wisconsin. Michigan is Michigan.”
Another Georgia Republican operative said the midterms were always going to be difficult, even before Iran. The special election results “only confirmed what Republicans already know, and that is that we have to fight harder than ever.”
“I think my Democratic friends and colleagues are probably reading too much into it,” he said. Also, he added, “We lost the special election before we invaded Iran, OK? So it’s really hard to tell.”
Adam Wren and Alec Hernandez contributed to this report.
