Whatever the fate of the reported two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, it remains historically significant because of the new dynamics that have just emerged from the war and which reflect important new power relations regionally and globally.
These include both positive and negative developments that are epic in their magnitude and historic in their implications for the future.
Most analysis in the West states that Trump is looking for an “off ramp” to escape the danger in which he has portrayed himself – using the analogy of how drivers on highways look for exit ramps to enter rest stops or low-intensity side roads. But what Iran has really done is given Trump and Israel a chance to press the ejection seat button to escape with their damaged fighter-jet – and survive without achieving their war goals.
Important new dynamics of the war include the large-scale destruction of essential civilian infrastructure and military facilities throughout the region by the US, Israel, Iran, and Tehran’s allies.
This includes the US threat of destruction of Iran as well as Israel’s actual destruction of all life-support systems in Gaza and most of South Lebanon. It disrupted vital global supply chains that impact every life and economic dimension – food, energy, water, technology, travel – and was tacitly supported by foreign allies of all actors.
It also confirmed the death of any international law or global treaty protections for non-combatants that once distinguished between military and civilian needs. All humans on earth are now living in danger.
The positive aspect of the two-week ceasefire agreement brokered by Pakistan is that it has been accepted by all – if not fully implemented – and contains substantial concessions by all.
Talks could succeed if the US and Israel sent serious adults to discuss lasting peace instead of petty media actors, professional killers and rogue colonial officials. American negotiators in particular must reflect the interests, values, and views of the American people and stop taking instructions from the Israelis.
However, compliance with Israeli demands is not the only Trumpian phenomenon; Washington has consistently reflected Israel’s priorities and desires in the Middle East since the 1950s, while not viewing Palestinians, Lebanese, Iranians, and other peoples in the region as people with equal rights to Israelis.
The war was fueled by decades of repeated Israeli pressure, exaggeration and lies about Iran’s unproven threats to the US and the region, swallowed up by successive White House leadership. It was ultimately started by Trump and some fellow circus-era dramatists — who never consulted Congress as constitutionally required, and do not reflect the wishes of the American people, two-thirds of whom oppose war.
It is also positive that the US and Israel agreed to negotiate based on the 10-point Iranian plan instead of the 15-point US-Israel agenda. This could allow negotiations to affirm the legitimate rights and needs of all parties concerned, rather than trying to achieve with brute force and war crimes tactics like thieves in the night what Israel-US could not achieve after six weeks of fighting and decades of sanctions and killings.
The coming weeks will make clear whether this is a genuine ceasefire agreement, or just another American-Israeli deception, as they have done to carry out surprise attacks and killings in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iran.
This historic agreement marks the first time that a Middle Eastern country has single-handedly tested the massive war-fighting capabilities of the US and Israel. At enormous cost, Iran has revealed its human talent, technical prowess, and political will to stand up to the American-Israeli axis, halt their offensive, and force them to negotiate in accordance with Iran’s checklist of required outcomes that satisfy both sides and international law that dictates that American-Israeli officials and forces be dismantled during the last half century.
The power and influence of “deterrence” has been used as a defensive strategy by parties that are vulnerable to conventional military measures. The US-Israeli advantage has been countered to some extent by Iran-led strategies, which have prevented Israel and the US from achieving all of their war objectives in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iran, although at great cost.
How widespread and enduring this “resistance” model is remains to be seen.
Long-term success beyond this ceasefire requires acknowledging a critical fact that the West has ignored to date: resolving the Palestine issue is central to achieving several linked goals – restraining Zionism and Israeli expansionist objectives, ending US imperialist actions and Israeli hegemonic actions, and allowing all states of the Middle East to live in peace with equal rights and sovereignty.
These essential issues must be addressed equitably to finally end the colonial era in the Middle East, which was led by US-Israeli-Western militarism, racism, and genocide over the past half century. If it happens, this agreement could significantly alter the regional balance of power within the Middle East and between the major and middle powers of the region and the world, which would be central to leaving the Middle East’s grueling colonial centuries behind.
Saudi Arabia’s position may help shape this, but it remains unclear due to widespread Israeli-American propaganda claiming that Riyadh instigated attacks against Iran. The mediation role of China and Pakistan behind the scenes is also unclear, but seems important.
Much remains to be clarified. But one casualty of this war to date has clearly been American credibility, both as a negotiating actor and as a security partner and guarantor for Arab states.
We cannot and should not waste time guessing or assuming what will happen next in the Middle East. It is more important to take an honest assessment of what has actually happened in the last century.
Its significance emerges only when one appreciates the linked series of events in reverse historical order: the US-Israeli attacks on Iran in June 2025 and February–April 2026; Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and Israel’s subsequent genocidal war; the Israeli siege of Beirut and occupation of South Lebanon in 1982; US-UK coup against the elected Prime Minister of Iran in August 1953; the United Nations partition resolution of Palestine in November 1947; and issuing the Balfour Declaration in London in November 1917 that pledged Britain’s support for a Jewish homeland in 93 percent Arab Palestine.
To understand the current dynamics, one must seriously appreciate the importance of this heritage, and appreciate the sentiments it has long aroused among the indigenous peoples of the Middle East. If the broader legacy of colonial violence, pain and cruelty throughout the Middle East is ignored – which is the Israeli playbook and, to date, the US-West’s obedient and complicit response – then the world will miss the opportunity to achieve human dignity and justice for all.
Continuing to ignore the reality and rights of nearly a billion people in the Arab-Islamic Middle East sets the stage for local and global disasters worse than what we have seen in the Middle East over the past two and a half years.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
