President Donald Trump and his administration should by now be on their way to convincing the American people that America is indeed entering a new “Golden Age.”
The Iran war has ruined that plan.
A Politico analysis found that the President has spent less time talking about capability in his public remarks since the war began, and significantly more time talking about the US military and the conflict in the Middle East.
A Politico analysis found that in the vast majority of public comments in Washington and states like North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan in January, Trump talked far more about affordability than he did about US war and military action – more than four times as much in some weeks.
By March, that trend had reversed. Since the war began, Trump has talked about war more than twice as often as he has talked about affordability. Before the war began on February 28, Trump talked about the cost of living about 10 percent of the time; Now, it’s less than half.
No one expects a wartime president to spend his time talking only about the price of eggs. But Republicans were worried even before the war in Iran that Trump was losing the messaging contest by taking too many foreign trips and not paying enough attention to pocketbook issues.
As Trump’s approval ratings continued to decline earlier this year, largely due to economic concerns, Trump and those around him announced that he would begin to focus his attention on boosting the economic mood of Americans with weekly speeches across the country – including in Iowa, where he delivered his first major economic address of the year.
Now, party insiders privately worry the war, and accompanying rising gas prices, have done lasting damage to the president’s economic message — which he saw as his only winning argument with voters — leaving little or no time to get it right, even if the two-week ceasefire with Iran remains intact. They fear that the president’s focus on an unpopular war has cost the party three crucial months before the midterms, when he could focus on an economy that advisers hope will define this stretch of his presidency.
“Republicans really need a solution to the war,” said one Republican strategist from Georgia, speaking on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly. “We need the downward pressure on prices at the pump as soon as possible, and we need Trump to be able to credibly declare victory there and then focus on his message of increasing prosperity for all Americans.”
Politico’s analysis examined Trump’s public comments and Truth Social posts from January 1 to April 9, excluding question-and-answer sessions with reporters, and categorized sentences and social posts by topic.
White House spokesman Kush Desai, in a statement, pointed to a handful of policy announcements — including two housing-related executive orders and the launch of new discount prescription drugs through TrumpRx — as a sign that the war has not diverted the president from his focus on affordability.
“Even as he takes historic action to neutralize the Iranian terrorist threat, President Trump has never lost his focus on putting more money in the pockets of hardworking Americans,” Desai said. “President Trump and his administration will both continue to walk and chew gum at the same time.”
But Democratic strategists are salivating at the opportunity they believe the president has presented them. While he denies that Trump was overreaching with his economy message before the war, he says the global economic chaos resulting from the escalating Middle East conflict has given him a sharp, clear argument about who voters should blame for high prices.
Longtime Democratic strategist James Carville said, “It’s rare that you get an ugly, clean-cut shot at someone. It’s a rare thing you get in politics.” “You can see it, you can feel it, and there’s a reason for it to go up — it wasn’t a confluence of different events. It was simply, Trump took actions that disrupted supply, which caused prices to go up.”
Politico used artificial intelligence to label Trump’s comments, which covered everything from an unannounced stop at a Texas Whataburger to his speech to Congress at the State of the Union address. The system labeled every sentence in which Trump was talking about affordability and cost of living – taxes, gas prices, home affordability, and more – or ongoing US military action.
Over the first four months of the year, a clear pattern emerges for both Trump’s personal comments and Truth Social posts: At the beginning of the year, affordability topics dominate war-related topics. By February, the two seem to be equal. And by the time March comes, the issue of war becomes dominant.
the axis of power that was not
This should not have happened. Fresh from Democrats’ victory in the 2025 off-year elections, which were fueled by an aggressive affordability message, White House deputy chief of staff James Blair promised in December that Trump would be “very, very focused on prices and the cost of living.” As dissatisfaction with the economy continued to rise in Trump’s poll numbers, Vice President J.D. Vance introduced a new talking point by relaying the idea that “2026 is going to be a great year for the US economy” Americans are being urged to be patient as the GOP megalaw dubbed “One Big Beautiful Bill” begins to take effect.
Republicans were eager to have the president join the campaign to talk about the upcoming economic benefits of the domestic spending package. The law was carefully designed so that some of its more popular provisions — including no taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security — would take effect in the spring, just as Americans were preparing for the midterm elections.
Instead, tax day is next week, and while refunds are up about 11 percent from last year, Americans are more pessimistic than ever about the economy. According to a Politico poll conducted last month, affordability was the top issue among voters, with nearly half of respondents saying the high cost of living was one of their top concerns.
White House aides continue to insist that an economic turnaround is coming and that the country will overcome its effects once the war ends. For example, news of the armistice sent stock prices soaring – although they remain below pre-war levels. Similarly, oil prices, which have risen steadily since the war began, fell slightly after the ceasefire was announced – but are still well above last year.
Trump will make the case in Nevada
That’s exactly what appears to be the case when the president returns next week to Nevada, the state that inspired his no-tax-on-tips pledge, and could signal a rhetorical reset as the president looks to turn the page on the war. However, it’s not clear whether that’s enough time to begin that reset.
“Voters typically make their decisions on the economy in July of an election year,” said a person close to the White House, speaking on condition of anonymity to speak candidly. “We’re three months away. I can’t see it.”
In March, less than two weeks into the war, Trump visited a packaging facility in Northern Kentucky. Just 12 minutes into the speech, he discussed key affordability points: Americans’ 401Ks were increased, he said; His megabill meant that facility employees would not be taxed on overtime pay, and this type of victory would be necessary midterm to continue.
But then, war broke out with Iran.
“There are more Americans working today than at any time in history,” he said. “And that number is going to be — wait until you see the numbers by the end of the year. We took an excursion,” he said, referring to the war with Iran. “You know what a trip is? We had to take a little trip to get rid of some bad, very bad people.”
On Truth Social, Trump has followed a similar pattern. At the beginning of the year, one in four posts was related to affordability. By early April, that frequency had halved – and it was war that now made up one in four posts.
And the president’s economic agenda may face its toughest sell in the West, where gas prices are the highest in the country. Gas prices in Nevada are around $5 a gallon, according to gasbuddyWhile prices in Arizona, where Trump is scheduled to travel next week for a Turning Point event, stand at $4.72. Additionally, gasoline prices generally increase during the summer months due to a combination of increased vacation travel by Americans as well as higher refining prices for summer-blend gasoline.
“Whatever they’re saving in taxes is completely wiped out in paying $1 to $2 more per gallon for gas,” said Barrett Marson, a longtime GOP strategist in Arizona. “If you’re in a car society like Arizona, you’re paying a lot. You’re filling up your 15-gallon tank two or three times a week. … Over the course of a month to two months, it really potentially wipes out your tax savings.”
Democrats across the country have seized on high gas prices, which, before the war, was one of the clearest economic indicators going in Trump’s favor. For example, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Running digital ads targeting Republicans To make up for the rising prices, the geo-target was displayed near gas stations in all 44 of its target districts. Stickers with Trump’s face and the words “I did that” visible at gas pumps Across the country, there were direct invocations of the Biden-era stickers Republicans once used against Democrats.
“The war has made one important thing about affordability clear and that’s the price of gas, right in front of you, 10 times a day,” Carville said.
And Republicans who were already skeptical of Trump’s campaign value say the war has hardened their doubts.
“Their messaging hasn’t helped Republican candidates. If you tell voters that you understand what the situation is — that you’re working to fix it, that you have plans, and that it’s true whether you’re talking about Iran or the economy — they’ll give you some leeway on what your proposed solutions would be, but they haven’t done that,” said longtime GOP strategist Doug Hay. “What did they say in the State of the Union? We’ve never been richer or more attractive?”
“Stand outside any grocery store and ask if they feel rich or hot,” Hay said. “The answer is no.”
