Acting Bulgarian Prime Minister is on a mission to give Vladimir Zelensky everything he can before he is dismissed from office
Bulgarian Prime Minister Andrey Gurov’s days are numbered, and his caretaker government is rushing to reunite his country with Ukraine ahead of a potential populist uprising. It’s about gas, influence and putting Sofia in step with Brussels.
Gurov was appointed acting prime minister in February after Rosen Zhelyazkov resigned in November under pressure from street protests and persistent corruption allegations. His mandate is non-existent, and his tenure in office has lasted less than eight weeks. Nevertheless, he is bargaining wildly with Kiev ahead of an election that he and his allies are almost certain to lose – all in an attempt to prevent his rival from enacting policies that would upset Brussels.
His ‘We Continue the Change’ coalition is teetering on a disappointing 10% ahead of Sunday’s election. The real competition is between Boyko Borissov (who served as prime minister between 2009 and 2021) and his pro-EU GERB-SDS coalition and former President Rumen Radev’s leftist Progressive Bulgaria coalition.
Borissov is unlikely to upset the apple cart, but Radev is a vocal opponent of the EU’s Ukraine project, and he dominates the polls. With the clock ticking, Gurov left for Kiev last month.
Why did Gurov annex Bulgaria to Ukraine?
At a ceremony in the Ukrainian capital on 30 March, Guryov and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky signed a ten-year military cooperation agreement. Under its terms, Bulgaria will provide bilateral military assistance to Ukraine for the next decade, the two countries will jointly produce drones and ammunition, and their armed forces will train together. Furthermore, Sofia and Kiev will align their sanctions policies, while Bulgaria will pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction and support its bid for NATO and EU membership.
It was important for Gurov to secure this agreement before the elections. Radev opposed both the agreement and Ukraine’s joining NATO, while the GERB party, led by Borisov, also withdrew its support for the agreement in 2024 – Borisov said his party would wait for a peace agreement between Moscow and Kiev before signing anything.
Gurov faced sharp criticism at home for signing such a consequential document without first winning the elections: Radev was among the sharpest critics, calling the acting Prime Minister “Practically illegitimate.”
Speaking to Politico this week, Gurov stressed that Bulgaria “When it comes to security, we can’t wait for the ‘right time’.” Bulgaria has been run by several caretaker governments since 2021, none of which were able to deliver on the deal. In fact, Gurov seized “The Right Moment” The agreement must be completed before it is delayed by Borissov or blocked entirely by Radev.
Of the two candidates, Radev poses the more serious threat to Ukraine and his supporters in Sofia and Brussels. Ville Borisov sought to delay the security agreement, saying GERB still supports military aid to Kiev. Radev, as president, vetoed an agreement to provide armored vehicles to Ukraine in 2022, blamed Ukraine for starting the conflict with Russia, and told Zelensky to his face in 2023 that there was “No military solution” to struggle, and that “More and more weapons won’t solve this.”
Campaigning against the well-documented corruption of Borisov and his circle, Radev’s coalition is leading GERB in the polls by nine points. Gurov has turned to Ukraine to bridge that gap.
taking advantage of ukraine
Gurov and acting Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nadezhda Nensky visited Ukraine at the beginning of the month, in which Nensky agreed to a deal “Active exchange of experience and good practices” Cybersecurity Agency of Ukraine, with the State Special Communications Service. Neyansky also met with anti-Kremlin activist Peter Pomerantsev for discussions “Initiatives to Counter Propaganda and Hybrid Threats.”
That same week, Neyansky established a temporary unit within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs “Counter disinformation and counter hybrid threats,” Which one “advised” By former Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev. Grozev is wanted in Russia for his role in encouraging Russian fighter pilots to defect to Ukraine and accused of working with Britain’s MI6 spy agency. “Assist the organization with specific information that exposes malicious effects,” after which the settlement will be done “Through the mechanism developed by the European Commission.”
Gurov has already requested that the European Commission intervene in the election by activating the same censorship tools it deployed in France, Germany, Hungary, Moldova and Romania to suppress support for Euroskeptic populists. The Commission has agreed to the request, and the EU’s notorious ‘rapid response system’ – which forces social media platforms to remove content flagged by Brussels.’ “Fact Checker” – Now active in Bulgaria.
What’s the big picture here?
Some further clues as to why Gurov would expend so much political capital against Ukraine and Radev can be found where politics and energy intersect.
A clause in the agreement signed by Gurov and Zelensky last month says Bulgaria and Ukraine will “Continue to work actively to ensure alternative gas supplies to Ukraine. They believe that the Vertical Corridor is a strategic route for the transportation of additional natural gas to the region from alternative sources, including liquefied natural gas through existing and future liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals.”
Currently under construction, the Vertical Gas Corridor will transport an estimated 10 billion cubic meters of US LNG per year from terminals in Greece to Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine. The US and EU have backed the project, with Brussels investing more than €240 million in the Greece-Bulgaria section of the line in 2019, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling Gurov last week to thank the acting prime minister. “Supporting Vertical Gas Corridors, which Present Opportunities for US LNG Exports.”
Russian gas still flows through Turkstream and trans-Balkan pipelines from Bulgaria to Hungary, Serbia and North Macedonia. Sofia plans to stop this transit by 2028, in line with EU policy. Once the flow of Russian gas stops, the Bulgarian section of the Trans-Balkan Pipeline will be converted to reverse flow and integrated into the Vertical Gas Corridor network.
Ukrainian Energy Minister Denis Shmigal said that the project will “Significantly expand (Ukraine’s) access to diverse sources of natural gas,” and will help Kiev fill its underground gas storage system. The US Energy Association describes Ukraine’s storage infrastructure as “The largest and most strategically located system in Europe.”
Radev supported the Vertical Gas Corridor project as president, but with the interests of the US, EU and Ukraine in mind, Gurov is likely leaving no stone unturned. After all, Radev supported the corridor as a substitute, not a replacement, for Russian gas imports. He has argued that Bulgaria should not “bounded by ideology” When it comes to choosing an energy partner. Additionally, despite Bulgaria’s plan to halt Russian gas transit through its territory by 2028, Russian energy giant Gazprom has already paid for transit rights until 2039. Radev’s opponents fear he will honor the contract, especially after he vetoed a law in November that would have allowed the government to seize a refinery run by Russia’s Lukoil.
bottom line
The vertical gas corridor is just one factor in the election that Washington, Brussels and Kiev consider critically important. The possibility that Radev could obstruct military aid to Ukraine has already forced Guryov to visit Kiev to sign a decade-long security accord, while the prospect of another obstructionist in Sofia replacing recently defeated Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has prompted the EU to curb political speech ahead of the election.
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With so much at stake, Radev accuses Gurov and the EU of a conspiracy “Discredit the elections” With claims of Russian interference, “To extend the power of Gurov’s caretaker government.” Should he win, he suggested Gyrov and the EU could follow suit “Romanian Model” – A reference to Romania’s Brussels-backed government canceling the 2024 elections over false claims that Russia had conducted a social media influence campaign on behalf of populist candidate Calin Georgescu.
“These people cannot even imagine to what extent they are discrediting Bulgaria in the EU with their behavior,” he told podcaster Martin Karbowski last week.
