President Donald Trump is eager to negotiate an end to the Iran war, as shown by his announcement of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon on Thursday.
Even though Washington and Tehran are far apart, Trump’s offer to host","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/16/trump-iran-war-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-00876638","_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff65940002","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff65940003","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Trump’s offer to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the White House are the latest example of how the American goal posts have shifted over the past several days.
Last week, the president mentioned Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon “separate skirmish”","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-says-israeli-strikes-on-lebanon-a-separate-skirmish-not-part-of-iran-ceasefire","_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff65940004","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff65940005","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>“separate skirmish” and stressed that it was not part of the ceasefire agreement with Tehran. But by pressuring Netanyahu to halt the punitive bombing campaign, Trump has removed a potential deal-breaker for Iran from the equation.
After last weekend’s talks in Pakistan yielded no breakthrough, Trump – facing rising consumer costs and declining public opinion numbers – may be more agreeable to at least some of Tehran’s demands in his public stance.
“I think he will accept more agreements because he badly wants this to end,” said a senior Gulf official familiar with the peace talks and speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss them. Trump “is serious about negotiations and badly wants this to end, but the Iranians are still refusing to give him what they need to save face and walk away.”
Backchannel talks are continuing despite Vice President JD Vance’s statement that he has already given the US a “final offer” to Islamabad.
Two days after saying the resumption of high-level talks was only days away, the president told reporters on Thursday before departing for Las Vegas that a new round of in-person talks could take place as soon as this weekend.
“Iran wants to make a deal, and we are treating them very well,” he said, reiterating his red line that Iran does not have nuclear weapons and adding that “they are willing to do things today that they were not willing to do two months ago.”
Trump appeared to dismiss the idea that a deal could include a 20-year freeze on Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, but he flatly ruled out only Tehran getting weapons. He did not specifically say Thursday that Iran would never be able to enrich uranium.
“We have a very powerful statement that they will not have nuclear weapons for more than 20 years,” Trump said. “There is no 20-year limit.”
The White House did not specifically respond to whether the President might accept a deal that allows Iran to enrich uranium for civilian purposes at some point in the future.
“President Trump, Vice President (J.D.) Vance and the negotiating team have made the American red lines very clear,” press secretary Carolyn Levitt said in a statement. “The Iranians’ desperation for a deal will only increase with President Trump’s highly effective naval blockade, which is sending oil tankers toward America’s big, beautiful Gulf.”
But the 20-year moratorium is actually the administration’s proposal, a key plank of a 14-point U.S. plan, according to two people familiar with the ongoing talks who agreed to remain anonymous to discuss them. Iran has only offered a five-year pause, both people said. Both people said Trump is also demanding that Iran agree to give up its supply of partially enriched uranium, which can be reclaimed by an agreed third country. Iran, so far, is refusing to give up.
He told reporters Thursday that Iran “has agreed to give us back the nuclear dust that is underground,” a claim that Tehran has not yet confirmed.
What those sticking points make clear is that, despite all of Trump and Vance’s insistence that they “hold the cards” in the negotiations, Iran has demonstrated an ability to absorb blockades and bombings while maintaining a hold on global markets by restricting the flow of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The standoff has left many world leaders and analysts skeptical that an agreement can be reached soon, especially given that the 2015 nuclear deal – often known as the JCPOA – took two years to negotiate between Iran and the US and five other countries. And this happened after several years of discussions, negotiations, sanctions, and a preliminary agreement.
“Iran holds a lot of cards right now,” Finnish President Alex Stubb said during an appearance in Washington earlier this week. “I’m afraid this is a reality.”
Trump’s move to impose a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz this week is an attempt to deny Iran its main leverage point and bring its leaders back to the table. While the blockade undercuts Iran’s economic lifeline – its ability to export oil – it also exacerbates the supply crisis resulting from Iran’s weeks-long ban on cargo traffic through the vital waterway.
“The purpose of this is to let Iran know that we have options, that they can’t afford to waste time and not get a better deal,” said Ike Freeman, a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University. “But we don’t have that much leverage because Iran may also see that the longer the strait remains closed, the more oil prices will rise, the more difficult it will be for the president politically.”
The White House has said the military can maintain the blockade as long as necessary. But analysts believe an extended blockade could come at a heavy cost, not only in terms of increasing the risk of a global recession due to oil shortages, but also in terms of the operation involving approximately 10,000 US sailors, Marines and airmen, depleting military resources and preparedness. White House Budget Director Russ Watt on Wednesdaytold the MPs","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/04/15/congress/no-iran-funding-ballpark-00872934","_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff65940006","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff65940007","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Russ Watt told MPs on Wednesday The Trump administration has not settled on a “ballpark” range for how much money it will require from Congress for the Iran conflict.
“Could strategically doubling the cuts for a few weeks, even if it increases short-term pain, get the White House a better long-term deal that deters Iran?” Freeman continued. “Maybe. But a big reason why Trump wants to find a way to end it is that the bombing campaign against Iran is coming to an end. Every extended-range missile we fire now weakens our deterrence in a fight with China.”
Trump, eager to avoid a wider rift with Beijing ahead of his planned visit next month, has seen at least one Chinese oil tanker pass through the blockade this week. shipping data","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.2/centery:26.9/zoom:9","_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff65940009","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff6594000a","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>shipping data.
Jamil N. Jafar, former chief counsel and senior adviser to the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said, “Iran pays for its economy by sending oil to China, so if the President wants to keep pressure on Iran he has to make sure that no oil leaves the Gulf.” “If the US does not implement it, no additional pressure can be put on Iran without resuming bombing or reopening the strait by escorting ships.”
Countries around the world are preparing for the possible impact of the blockade. Head of the International Energy Agency The Associated Presstold to","Add":{"Target": :"New","Property":(),"url": :"https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-Europe-jet-fuel-flight-cancellations-birol-6e67fafd493861b3858de5548aa77703","_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff6594000b","_Type": :"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_Identification": :"0000019d-98ad-df59-a39f-beff6594000c","_Type": :"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>told the associated press Europe has “perhaps six weeks or more” of jet fuel left before oil shortages cause mass cancellations, it said Thursday.
“It’s an economic game of chicken, but Europeans and Asians are caught in the middle,” said a European diplomat, who asked to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to speak publicly. “I can’t see how (the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) can lose because they have nothing or very little to lose.”
An Asian diplomat, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said a blockade lasting more than a month could be a “prolonged blow” to the global economy. “Export diversification through pipelines and non-Hormuz routes is partially offsetting the losses, but I am not sure how long these measures will last, because Iran can always pull them out if it sees this as a war of rapid attrition.”
If Trump ultimately ends the blockade and accepts a deal with no possibility of future enrichment, it would raise questions about the president’s strategy.
Christopher Hill, a five-time U.S. ambassador who served under Democratic and Republican presidents, said, “This war has caused a tremendous amount of material damage, loss of life, not to mention the isolation chambers built for the United States.” “Given the fact that some key aspects of the negotiations revolve around issues that were well-known and painstakingly discussed and addressed in the JCPOA process ten years ago, it is difficult to justify or even explain what has happened over the past month.”
Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.
