There is no denying the fact that in many countries around the world the population is aging and fertility is declining.
latest state of world population Report of the United Nations Agency for Sexual and Reproductive Rights (UNFPA) shows that one in five adults worldwide believe they will not be able to have as many children as they want, mainly due to economic insecurity, inequality and lack of support.
But UNFPA economist and demographer Michael Herrmann cautions against panic. “Demographic change is not a crisis in itself,” he says. “It is a reality that we need to understand, plan for and adapt to.”
Michael Herrmann, UNFPA advisor on economics and demography.
demographic flexibility
Mr Herrmann, who spoke on the sidelines of a meeting of the Commission on Population and Development at UN headquarters in New York this week, is advocating a concept that is gaining attention: demographic resilience.
This means helping societies anticipate population change, adapt their institutions, and better utilize their human potential – an approach that applies to developing and rich countries, whether their populations are growing, declining, or aging.
Some countries experience a “demographic dividend” when a growing working-age population boosts economic growth.
Others, with demographic changes, may benefit from the “second dividend” by investing in education, health, skills, and technology to increase productivity.
Honey, I’ve downsized the workforce
One of the most visible effects of an aging population is a shrinking workforce. While many governments have responded by raising the retirement age, Herrmann says this response is often too blunt a tool.
Simply expecting everyone to work longer ignores the different abilities, preferences, and life circumstances of older adults.
Some people may want to keep working, even if part-time or in less demanding roles. Providing more flexible options could help older workers stay engaged while reducing pressure on pension systems.
Population aging is a defining global trend of our times.
Cash for kids?
As birth rates fall, some governments respond with cash bonuses, tax breaks or even official fertility targets. Evidence suggests that the impact of these measures is limited and short-lived.
“The lump sum payment doesn’t change the long-term decision,” says Mr. Herrmann. At best, they may influence when people have children, not whether they have children or not.
UNFPA’s new Youth Fertility Choices Survey, now running in 70 countries, takes a different approach: asking people directly why they are having fewer children than they would like.
Early results highlight a mix of economic and social pressures. High housing and child care costs, insecure employment and worries about the future – from political instability to climate change – all weigh heavily.
There are similarly unequal gender roles, with women often bearing the majority of unpaid care and domestic work.
“These are not issues that can be solved with a check,” Herrmann says.
right to choose
Policies motivated by fear of population decline may also undermine the rights of women in particular.
Fertility goals and top-down directives sometimes come with harmful connotations; For example, women must stay at home, sex education must be cut, or access to reproductive health care must be restricted.
A rights-based approach starts with a different question: What prevents people from having the children they want?
From there, governments can identify practical solutions like affordable housing, accessible child care, parental leave for both parents, stable jobs, and equal pay. Such policies help families without any pressure.
Aging does not mean decline
An aging population poses real challenges, particularly for pension systems and health. But they do not automatically indicate economic decline.
Spending on health and long-term care also creates jobs, especially in services rooted in local communities. Meanwhile, older people contribute in many ways beyond paid work, from caring for family members to volunteering.
Herrmann argues that the bigger challenge is the small labor force. Addressing this requires productivity-boosting investments in education, skills, technology and infrastructure, as well as inclusion – in other words, bringing more women, migrants, youth and older workers into employment.
Migration is not a quick solution
Migration is another powerful – and often misunderstood – demographic force.
In countries experiencing steep population decline, low birth rates are usually only part of the story.
High emigration also plays a major role. In parts of the Western Balkans, the population has declined by 20 to 30 percent since the 1990s, largely because people moved in search of work elsewhere.
In contrast, countries such as Germany have largely avoided population decline due to internal migration.
But migration is not a quick solution. Without language training, recognition of qualifications and pathways to work, many migrants remain locked out of the labor market, to the detriment of both newcomers and host societies.
listen instead of panic
Ultimately, Mr. Herrmann’s approach to demographic resilience is based on listening.
If most people want two children but have fewer, the answer is not to put pressure on families or panic. The solution involves understanding their realities and shaping policies that expand options rather than limit them.
Get it right, he says, and demographic change will become something that society can manage with fairness, confidence and a long-term view.
