US importers, ranging from Target To wal-martMore than $160 billion in tariff refunds are to be paid out following the Supreme Court’s decision in February, as the Trump administration launched its claims filing portal on Monday.
Hopes are high for a smooth launch of the system that will facilitate refunds, but companies and Wall Street analysts are lowering their expectations that companies will get the money back quickly.
Trade lawyers are warning about bureaucratic hurdles, legal weaknesses as well as the possibility of a last-minute appeal by the Trump administration.
“(Importers) are pessimistic that the government is going to make it easy. They’re hopeful that the government is going to make it as difficult as possible to get their money back,” said Matthew Seligman, principal trade attorney at Greyhawk Law.
“There is disappointment because of the Supreme Court have already ruled “These tariffs are illegal,” he said.
Tariff refund claim portal will open on Monday
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is set to launch a tariff claims-filing portal – known as the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or cape – On Monday.
According to CBP, importers can submit a declaration into the system for tariffs paid under Trump’s now-invalidated emergency tariff authority and then expect to receive “a consolidated refund amount.” Program documents show that refund claims have to go through multiple verifications.
“The idea is that all importers who are affected and pay tariffs should use this system, whether they’re Walmart or a local mom-and-pop store down the street … The way they’ve described it seems much more expedient than we expected,” said Stephen Risinger, partner at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright.
“There is a lot of pessimism in the importing community about whether this will actually work as described,” he said.
Retailers will have to pay huge refunds
Wall Street analysts are predicting huge refunds for blue-chip retailers.
According to an April 10 analysis by Citi, wal-mart $10.2 billion outstanding, Target owes $2.2 billion and Nike $1 billion may be recovered. Refund is also expected Kohl’s At $550 million, Difference at $400 million, and Macy’s For $320 million, the firm got it.
Retailers could be in line for big tariff refunds
| anchor | company | Estimated Refund |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | wal-mart | $10.2 billion |
| tgt | Target | $2.2 billion |
| HD | home depot | $540 million |
| kss | Kohl’s | $550 million |
| Difference | Difference | $400 million |
| NKE | Nike | $1 billion |
Source: City
The refunds likely won’t be made with much forward guidance from equity research teams, but could theoretically provide some one-time boost to the balance sheet in coming quarters or be used for equity buybacks and debt repayments.
“When asked what might be done with the refund proceeds, most management teams said something like: … ‘If refunds are received, we will consider all options in terms of what to do with the cash. We will consider meeting business needs, share repurchases, debt repayments, or increasing our cash cushion on the balance sheet,'” City Equity researchers wrote in their note.
Walmart CFO John David Rennie said he doesn’t expect the refund process to happen that fast.
“It would seem very complicated and, by extension, probably not something that’s going to happen very quickly. We will certainly take advantage of the opportunity we have to get refunds, but when that happens remains to be seen,” he said at the JPMorgan Retail Roundup on April 8.
If refunds come as expected, they may be reflected in the company’s financial position.
“It will be recognized in earnings from an accounting perspective. So it’s a (profit and loss) P&L benefit, should we get that refund,” Rennie said.
However, trade lawyers said the refunds could create a legal weakness for companies claiming them. This is because many companies have increased their costs, increasing the overall level of consumer prices.
January 1st Analysis Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab found that retail tariff pass-through “contributed about 0.76 percentage points to the consumer price index for all goods through October 2025.”
“If (the companies) get refunds, what are the chances that they will be sued by (their) direct or indirect customers?” Risinger said.
Are additional tariffs coming?
Administration officials have been lax about restoring tariff levels through legal channels other than emergency authorization. are under consideration Section 301 TariffWhich are used by US trading partners to target “discriminatory” or “unfair” trade practices.
“We had a setback in the Supreme Court on tariff policy, but we will implement or conduct a Section 301 study, so tariffs can return to previous levels by the beginning of July,” Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said at a Wall Street Journal event last week. bloomberg.
Importers say they are concerned about the upcoming Section 301 tariffs.
“We’re really concerned about it,” Eugene Laney, president of the American Association of Exporters and Importers, told CNBC on Thursday. “But even if they did move forward on that, I don’t believe it (the International Emergency Economic Powers Act) would reach the level of the IEEPA tariffs.”
The White House, the Treasury Department and the U.S. Trade Representative did not respond to CNBC’s questions about further use of the Section 301 tariffs.
