Food security in Africa could face major disruptions due to ongoing uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran is disrupting global fertilizer trade flows – and will leave millions of African farmers without ammonia, urea, phosphate, sulfur and other fertilizer inputs critical to growing more food in sub-Saharan Africa.
For example, fertilizer shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz account for about one-quarter of the global ammonia trade and more than a third of the seaborne urea trade. Even the slightest risk could drive up fertilizer prices, halt shipments and cause huge swings in food price inflation.
This scenario of food insecurity is not new: disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine drove fertilizer prices to record highs, highlighting how dependent we have become on a handful of export hubs and disrupted transportation routes.
About 80 percent of the fertilizer used in sub-Saharan Africa is imported, often at much higher prices than in Europe due to freight, financing and logistics. When global supplies falter, Africa’s farmers often feel the economic shock the hardest. For many governments, fertilizer security is linked to food security, which, in turn, is linked to economic and social stability.
Africa’s small farmers are at the forefront of this crisis. They produce about 70 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s food, and unlike large commercial farms, which have the cash to ensure supply in the first place, small farmers often have limited fertilizer options or face steep price increases.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, even a 10 percent reduction in fertilizer availability could reduce maize, rice and wheat cultivation in sub-Saharan Africa by 25 percent. This could increase food inflation on the continent by up to 8 percent.
In 2022, the African Development Bank Group launched a $1.5 billion African Emergency Food Production Facility to help countries respond to supply disruptions amid the war in Ukraine. The initiative has supported approximately 16 million smallholder farmers in 35 countries with climate-smart seeds and fertilizer, helping to produce 46 million tons of food worth approximately $19 billion, including co-financing of approximately $323 million from international partners.
Having distributed 3.5 million metric tons of fertilizer to date, the facility is launching a second phase that supports the transition from immediate emergency relief to strengthening, enhancing, and institutionalizing long-term national food sovereignty. This African-made solution has a role in helping African countries reduce the uncertainty of fertilizer flows in the Strait of Hormuz.
But African policymakers, partners and allies also need to act to reduce the immediate risks of an Iran conflict and build long-term resilience. They should move forward on five fronts.
First, they need to strengthen market intelligence. Real-time tracking of trade flows, shipping routes and price trends helps policymakers anticipate disruptions. UN Trade and Development’s Strait of Hormuz ship traffic monitoring demonstrates how trade data can guide decision making before shortages escalate. Sharing data between regional institutions such as the African Fertilizer and Agribusiness Partnership will allow countries to assess exposures and coordinate action.
Second, African governments and regional organizations need to coordinate regional procurement and buffer stocks. By aggregating fertilizer demand, they can negotiate better prices and reduce the risk of export restrictions or increased freight charges. Shared, commercial channels can stabilize markets during stock shortages. Partnerships with Africa’s major fertilizer producers such as Morocco and Nigeria could help stabilize markets and limit panic buying.
Third, African states urgently need to expand domestic and regional production. Countries such as Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia are building fertilizer manufacturing and blending capacity, but the scale is limited relative to demand. Public-private partnerships should invest in upgrading blending plants, ports and railways while promoting organic fertilizers and soil-specific nutrient management.
Fourth, African governments need to protect smallholder farmers from price increases. Well-targeted subsidies, digital voucher systems and expanded access to seasonal credit can help reduce the burden of global instability falling on those who are least able to absorb it.
Finally, we must support the Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Initiative. Adopted during the Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit hosted by the African Union in 2024, the initiative’s 10-year action plan is designed to reverse Africa’s soil degradation, boost agricultural productivity, triple fertilizer use, restore nearly a third of degraded soils, and double grain yields.
As the 2026 planting season approaches, Africa’s ability to address fertilizer supply risks will depend on how quickly and with broad reach governments, regional organizations and private sector partners work together.
The World Bank’s AgriConnect program, launched in late 2025 in collaboration with the African Development Bank Group and other organizations, shows what this partnership approach could look like. By connecting digital farming advice, facilitating access to credit and climate-smart farming, AgriConnect can help farmers get the fertilizers and other inputs they need, show farmers how to use them more efficiently and prepare farmers to be more resilient to global market fluctuations.
Tensions in the Gulf are a reminder that disruptions to remote shipping lanes can send food prices soaring to African households thousands of kilometers away. Multilateral banks, regional agencies and other development partners need to align funding with fertilizer security priorities. When we act quickly, these partnerships can turn today’s crisis into an opportunity that builds Africa’s long-term food and economic sovereignty.
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
