It seems that the curse of mid-term elections is going to weigh heavily on the ruling party.
The midterms are still seven months away, and Republicans will have to contend with an American electorate whose mood has clearly changed.
President Donald Trump is looking for revenge after regaining the White House in 2024 “Betrayed” For the presidency in 2020 elections – confidently declared victory. His approval numbers have never looked better and Republicans control Congress. Meanwhile, Democrats looked dazed and confused as they struggled to understand their loss. Yes, Trump looked invincible. But that was yesterday.
Trump is certainly aware of the curse that has haunted incumbents for decades, which says they have a high probability of losing a midterm (for those specified, midterm elections are general elections that occur around the midpoint of a president’s four-year term). This curse has also proven true for popular two-term leaders like Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. To put it bluntly, the numbers don’t look very promising for Republicans at this stage of the game.
According to the latest data, Donald Trump’s approval rating is 33%, which is the lowest in his second term. This decline is due to a number of factors, including fear of dealing with the Iran war, immigration, inflation, and various other issues, with 62% of Americans reporting disapproval of their job performance. The lack of enthusiasm for the American leader will impact the midterm elections.
What is more troubling for Republicans is that the latest polls indicate that they could lose not only the House but also the Senate – a scenario that seemed almost impossible just a few months ago. Currently, about 40 House seats are considered ‘up in the air’. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take control of the House. As far as the Senate goes, states once considered solidly Republican – like Iowa, Ohio and Texas – are now too close to call. Historically, the party controlling the White House loses an average of 22 House seats in a midterm.
Immigration, the single issue that helped propel Trump into the Oval Office, is beginning to falter. After controlling the political agenda for years, he has dropped That’s the lowest level since Trump took office in late January — on the back of civil rights and civil liberties concerns, according to YouGov and The Economist tracking. This change coincided with the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretty, two Minneapolis residents who were shot and killed by ICE agents during the operation.
Then there was the Iran war, a foreign policy flop that flies in the face of the ‘America First’ principle that has propelled Trump to power. The war not only contradicts Republican ideology, but it has alienated many NATO allies in the process. Back home, while many Americans would have difficulty locating Iran on a map, they don’t need any special guidance to tell them where gasoline prices are — averaging about $3.45 per gallon.
As far as the distracted and overworked American is concerned, Washington can wage war whenever and wherever it wants without leaving a dent in their pockets. Trump clearly understands this and that is why he is desperate to get out of Iran as soon as possible. Meanwhile, while Trump turns his attention abroad to Iran and Ukraine, MAGA ideologues are frustrated as the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7% over the past 12 months.
And then there are the Epstein files, which Trump promised to release for public scrutiny during the campaign. However, after taking office, the tone changed as the US leader dismissed the documents as another Democrat conspiracy. It needed a bipartisan congressional push in the form of an emancipation petition to force his hand. In November 2025, Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Release eventually began in December, although after heavy revisions. When investigators examined the files, they discovered that the Justice Department had selectively withheld material related to allegations against the President. The secrecy surrounding the most explosive scandal to rock Washington in decades didn’t help Trump and the Republican Party in the election.
It is important to note that the political reversal being experienced by Republicans has nothing to do with Democratic strength. It’s easy to forget that the Democrats are extremely unpopular among American voters – their net favorability is -20 points according to polls.
The simplest explanation for the crisis at this point is that voters are punishing Republicans. They are angry about rising prices, the bumbling over the Epstein files, harsh anti-immigrant tactics and foreign adventurism.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of RT.
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