It was a week of decline in the price of gold, which fell from US$4,800 an ounce at the beginning of the period to less than US$4,700.
After last week’s high level, silver also showed a declining trend.
Both precious metals continue to react to news about the Iran war, fueled by the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire in the middle of the week. However, the turmoil has escalated since then, increasing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
I heard from John Fennec of Fennec Consulting this week, who said that while it is difficult to see gold and silver prices falling, it is not surprising given the circumstances.
Here’s how he explained it:
“It’s been seven weeks of pain. Is there something that you did, I did, that investors did? No – it’s war. I mean, look at the price action. It’s telling you that the selloff was generated on March 3, which was a Tuesday, by a lot of margin calls and a lot of leverage out there. It’s what we call opening that type of position, where people need to sell because they’re losing money in other parts of the market, and they cover those positions. Needs to be done.”
Fennec said gold and silver stocks also suffered losses, but encouraged investors to take time to review whether the thesis has indeed changed for their holdings:
“I would just say to investors, stop right there. You have to check the facts yourself. Take a weekend and spend a few hours looking at your holdings, do the homework, ‘Hey, has this thesis changed with this stock?’
“What’s happened since March 3? Probably not much happening with that stock, right? It’s just moving around because of volatility.”
Looking at the broader market, I also heard this week from independent macro strategist Tom Bradshaw, who identified one indicator that is raising warning signs for the US economy.
“It looks at inflation-adjusted gold and oil prices relative to their 12-month averages,” he said. “I used an average of these two, and what I found is that when they get above 22 percent we have always seen severe periods of economic turmoil since the beginning of the fiat currency era.”
According to Bradshaw, the signs began around 1974, 1979, and 2008 – while the past is not necessarily prologue, he is concerned about what will happen next:
“The most important thing about this indicator is that gold and oil are moving together…Gold moving up shows that investors are pricing in financial and economic risk, and oil moving up shows that investors are pricing in geopolitical risk. And when you have three of these issues present simultaneously, it certainly shows that you potentially have a lot of problems.”
Bullet Briefing – Fed will meet next week, Agnico’s three gold deals
Fed ready to meet
Coming next week, the US Federal Reserve will meet for the third time in 2026.
CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool shows the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. Its last cut was last December, and since then inflation concerns due to the Iran war have raised questions about future cuts.
If all goes according to plan, next week’s Fed meeting will be the last for Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends on May 15. However, it is possible that he could remain in the post for a long time – Powell has said that he will. stop temporarily If nominee Kevin Worsh is not confirmed by that time.
Warsh’s confirmation hearing took place this week, and raised questions about the Fed’s independence – a key concern given US President Donald Trump’s clash with Powell on rates and comments suggesting he believed Warsh would be more likely to make a bid.
Interestingly, it is Trump’s feud with Powell that could lead to an extension of his tenure at the Fed – Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who is part of the Senate Banking Committee, has said that he won’t vote for warsh Unless Trump closes the Justice Department’s investigation into Powell. this happened on friday (April 24), potentially clearing Warsh’s path; tillis No comments yet On this development.
Agnico signs three gold deals
Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM,NYSE:AEM) announced several deals this week to strengthen Finland’s Central Lapland greenstone belt. The major miner plans to acquire Rupert Resources (TSXV:RUP,OTCQX:RUPRF) and Orion Resources (TSXV:AU,OTCQX:AIRRF) as well as B2Gold’s (TSX:BTO,NYSEAMERICAN:BTG) 70 percent stake in Feingold Ventures. Because Orion owns the other 30 percent of Feingold, Agnico will eventually become the full owner of that joint venture as well.
The resulting land package will cover approximately 2,500 square kilometers, and Agnico officials say it could become a gold production center capable of producing 500,000 ounces of gold annually within the next decade. Synergy is estimated at US$500 million.
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