Lights on skyscrapers and commercial buildings on the London city skyline, Britain, Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025. UK business chiefs have urged Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to reduce energy costs and avoid increasing the tax burden on corporate Britain as she prepares this year’s budget.
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British government borrowing costs rose to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis on Friday as investors struggled to price in rising inflation risks and the growing prospect of interest rate hikes later this year.
UK government bonds – known as gilts – have suffered a sharp revaluation amid the escalation of the Iran war. Yields on the benchmark 10-year gilt have risen nearly 68 basis points, while yields on 2-year gilts have risen nearly 97 basis points in the 15 trading days since the conflict began.
Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
yield on uk on friday 10-year government bond It rose nearly 9 basis points to 4.933%, its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
Meanwhile, the harvest continues 2 year old gilt They rose 11 basis points to about 4.513%, their highest level in more than a year.
UK 2-year-old gilt
The UK bond market has been particularly sensitive to fears of a resurgence of inflation due to the protracted US-Iran war, in part due to its dependence on imported energy. The war and subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – a vital oil shipping route – has caused oil and gas prices to rise.
Even before the war began, Britain’s long-term government borrowing costs were the highest of any G7 country 20- And 30-year-old gilt Trading well above the crucial 5% threshold. On Friday, yields on those bonds rose by 9 and 7 basis points, respectively.
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Nigel Green, CEO of financial adviser Deavere Group, told CNBC that the market is increasingly reducing expectations of a rate cut from the Bank of England.
On Thursday, the central bank’s monetary policy committee said it had voted “unanimously” to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold, adding that inflation would be higher in the near term “as a result of new shocks to the economy.”
Before the war began, the BOE was expected to cut its key interest rate. Now, markets are pricing in a near 0% chance of a rate cut from the Bank this year, with most traders seeing a rate hike next month, LSEG data shows. Markets are also pricing in a key rate of at least 4.25% by the end of the year, which would suggest a minimum of two rate hikes.
“The trigger is energy, as the oil and gas shocks are directly impacting inflation expectations, and gilts are reacting exactly as you would expect in this scenario,” Devers Green told CNBC via email. “This is not a disorderly sell-off – this is an understandable reassessment of risk.”
This is not a disorderly sell-off – this is an understandable reassessment of risk.
nigel green
CEO, Deavere Group
According to Green, there was also “a political layer” to the movements observed in the gilt markets.
“Finance Secretary Rachel Reeves has built her fiscal framework around stability and reliability, but higher yields quickly translate into higher borrowing costs,” he said. “This, of course, reduces its room for maneuver at a time when pressure is building for additional assistance to energy and households.”
The bond market has largely been supportive of Reeves’ commitment to his so-called “fiscal rules” during his tenure as Finance Minister, with speculation he could be fired last year triggering a gilt selloff.
Adding to the selling pressure on Friday, official data showed the UK government borrowed £14.3 billion ($1.74 billion) more than expected in February.
Reeves has committed to bringing day-to-day government spending to a level where it can be funded by tax revenues rather than borrowing, his rules also state that public debt should be reduced as a share of economic output by 2029–30.
“From an investment perspective, higher yields are starting to restore value to some parts of the curve,” Green said. “But volatility will remain high while energy markets dictate the inflation outlook.”
George Godber, fund manager of Polar Capital UK Value Opportunities Fund, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday that his team was avoiding any immediate reaction to the news flow about the conflict.
He said, “The duration of this impact is deeply unknown… In times like these, history will tell you that the best thing to do is to remain calm.” “What we have done is very little.”
