Profits delivered – now the real question: what comes next?

The last season brought exactly what we were waiting for.

Follow-through, level-by-level movement and in some cases… clean execution of the previously mentioned scenarios. In other words – it wasn’t a guessing game – it was a game of structure. And today, instead of chasing new ideas… we focus on key decision points based on what the market is doing right now.

US Dollar (DX.F)

We’ll start today’s free lab notes with a quote from April 9th:

“(…) Still, we cannot ignore the bigger picture.

A daily close below the rising channel has already activated a broad bearish scenario – one that suggests a potential move towards 98.00, where the measured move aligns with the channel’s high and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. And this scenario becomes even more probable if the bulls lose control of the March 24 gap. (…)”

Looking at today’s chart we can clearly see this recession scenario We outlined this last week Price has failed to reach our downside target.

However, what happened before is even more telling…

Despite a strong bullish gap early yesterday, buyers failed to maintain control. By the end of the session, not only was the gap filled but additional support layers were also lost: 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and March 3 Pro Bullish Gap.

This was a clear sign of weakness, which pushed the dollar lower into the next support zone created by the 50% Fibonacci retracement and green gap from March 2 (downside target above).

At first glance, this area may seem helpful, however, here’s the problem – a similar structure failed just yesterday! Therefore, with no confirmed buy signals on the daily indicators, the burden of proof still lies on the bulls.

Outlook

recession scenario: Break below the current support zone opens the door: 97.23 (61.8% Fib Retracement) / 96.82-97.00 (Feb 17 gap)
Bullish scenario: A daily close above 97.77 would stabilize the situation and open the door to a move towards the April 8 bearish gap up.
key takeaway:This is a decision area – no need to guess – just wait for completion.

Gold (GC.F) and Silver (SIF) are reserved for these classes premium reader Today.

Having said that, let’s talk about what was actually distributed…

Copper (HG.F): Highlights of the day

Before delving deeper, let’s revisit the quote from April 1:

“(…) The upper boundary of a falling wedge sits just above current levels, and that is the real test.

Why?

Because breaking this wedge would not only confirm continuation – it could open the door to a much bigger move, potentially even to the 78.6% retracement of the entire decline or higher (depending on the breakout point).

Today’s session adds another piece to the puzzle.

The price has pulled back a bit and is now testing the upper boundary of the consolidation that was broken yesterday and this is what you want to see.

(…) The breakout above the consolidation is a positive sign but the real test is yet to come. As As long as price remains above 558 = breakout remains valid, with a move towards ~595 in play. (…)”

Looking at the daily chart, we see that the breakout we discussed worked, and Bulls reach our first upside target (A big congratulations to everyone who kept up with the bullish scenario and caught this move). This is exactly how a structured business should look.

What happened?

• initial hesitation
• consolidation near resistance
• Breakout → Acceleration

What will happen next? → Rest analysis available premium price Reader today.

today’s takeaway

Let’s keep it simple and functional…

dollar: Wait for confirmation and do not trade without daily closing signal.

Sleep:(…)

silver:(…)

copper:Trend has already been given -(…)

final thoughts:This is one of those moments where the market has already done the hard work. Now your job is to give the correct response.

Be patient, be selective and let the market confirm it before committing.

Anna