Buy Now or Wait for the Struggle?

As airfares continue to rise amid the Iran war, potential travelers may be wondering: should I buy my air ticket now or wait to see if things improve?

Travel experts say the best option is usually to buy sooner rather than later.

Katy Nastro, travel expert at travel deal website Going, said, “Whether you’re thinking of traveling in two weeks, two months, or waiting to buy airfare…hoping the struggle will end soon, it’s honestly riskier than some of the fashion choices we made as teenagers: Our future selves aren’t going to be happy about it.”

In short: “If it fits your budget now, don’t put it off,” Nastro said.

As the high-demand summer travel season approaches, airline ticket prices generally begin to trend upward.

But prices have risen faster than usual this year amid a shock to oil supplies caused by the conflict in the Middle East, which began on February 28 between the US and Israel. Started attacks on Iran.

As of April 20, the average round-trip domestic flight cost $361, according to weekly data From Kayak, a travel search engine. The price is up nearly 8% from $335 on Feb. 23, before the Iran war began. That’s up 19% from $304 at the end of April 2025 a year ago.

International fares have risen more in recent months: According to Kayak, the average round-trip flight reached $1,097 on April 20, a 42% increase from $774 on February 23 and a 14% increase from a year earlier.

Airlines are raising summer prices because of the cost of jet fuel, according to Hayley Berg, chief economist at travel booking app Hopper.

Jet fuel is one of airlines’ largest operating costs, typically accounting for 20% to 30% of their total expenses — making jet fuel a “significant driver” of airfares, Berg wrote in an e-mail.

Iran and America have Blocked the Strait of Hormuz – a maritime shipping route through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes – in competing efforts to drive up global oil prices, inflicting economic pain on the other.

The price of US jet fuel, refined from crude oil, has risen about 82% since the Iran war began, from $2.50 on Feb. 27 to $4.56 a gallon as of Wednesday, according to Argus Media. jet fuel price index.

Airlines should either absorb those additional costs or pass them on through pricing to compensate for “really high” per-flight costs, Berg wrote.

Apart from raising ticket prices, airlines have taken steps such as increasing baggage fees, adding fuel surcharges and cutting flight schedules to manage the fallout.

The degree of impact varies for consumers, Berg wrote.

For example, the price impact on shorter flights may be more limited because fuel represents a smaller portion of total operating costs, she wrote. But fuel becomes the “major cost driver” on long-haul flights, so changes in fuel oil prices have a more direct and pronounced impact on those travelers, he wrote.

Berg said he estimates that higher fuel costs have already increased summer airfares by about 10% relative to Hopper’s expectations. Fares to Europe, the top summer travel destination for Americans, have increased nearly 9%, he wrote.

“We don’t know what fuel prices will be like this summer, because the outcome of the current conflict is unknown,” Berg wrote. “Travelers looking to book domestic or international flights for the summer should start monitoring prices now. If they see a good deal, we recommend they go ahead and shop!”

Experts say that even if the war ends in the near future, it will take several months for the situation to return to normal.

For example, it will take time to rebuild oil infrastructure in the Middle East and work through delays in oil production, Nastro said.

“Don’t wait (to buy), because that’s a risk you don’t want to take at this time,” he said. “By thinking the rent will go down a lot, you’re taking the risk that it won’t go down at all.”

He said this logic applies for summer travel as well as flights in September and October.

Experts say that apart from war, airfares can become unstable. And airline tickets become more expensive in the weeks and months before departure.

Travelers can usually get the best deals by shopping months in advance and not waiting until the last minute, he said.

Nastro refers to this as the “Goldilocks” window.

Nastro said domestic travelers typically get the best prices when they shop three to seven months in advance of their trip, while international travelers typically do so four to 10 months in advance.

Berg offered a similar timeline depending on the destination. He recommended:

• Domestic flights: Start monitoring prices three to four months before traveling and make bookings one to two months in advance;
• Trips to Europe: Start monitoring prices seven to eight months before departure and book three to six months in advance;
• trips to asia, Australia and Africa: Keep an eye on prices seven to eight months in advance and book five to seven months in advance for long-haul international trips.

Berg said travelers who have not yet booked their trips may consider flying in the fall rather than in the summer to save money, and/or postpone until there is more clarity about the Iran war.

“Flying in September or October compared to the peak summer months can result in significant savings on trips, especially to international destinations such as Europe,” he said.